The top two teams in the National League, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, will square off tonight in Georgia. The 2021 NLCS matchup promises plenty of excitement and may have meaningful consequences for playoff seeding. Let’s get into the betting odds for Monday evening’s Dodgers-Braves action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re getting contrarian and backing the under.
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Best Dodgers-Braves Bet & Prediction: Tail This Contrarian Wager
Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers: +128 | Atlanta Braves: -152
Over 9.5: -110 | Under 9.5: -110
Although the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves both own the same record, the books are favoring the Braves because of their edge on the mount. The Braves will start veteran RHP Charlie Morton (5-3), whose 2.85 ERA ranks third among the team’s regular starters — although his 4.39 xERA is cause for some concern. The Dodgers will start prospect RHP Gavin Stone (0-0), who owns a 9.00 ERA through four career innings pitched, all of which came against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The pitching points to the potential for a high-scoring game. Stone has a wide range of outcomes but his inexperience may prove costly in a big road game. Morton, despite his experience, struggled in his last matchup with the Dodgers. He lasted 5.1 innings but recorded a 6.32 ERA and gave up a first-inning home run to his former teammate, Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers ended up scoring four runs in that contest on the way to an easy home win. The Braves put just one run on the board.
The offensive numbers also suggest we should see plenty of runs tonight, although perhaps not as many as some expect. The Braves lead the MLB in expected weighted on-base average (.357), and the Dodgers aren’t far behind in third (.348). The L.A. offense tends to head up against right-handed pitching and owns an OPS of .784 against them. However, Atlanta’s offense has underperformed when taking on righties — the Braves’ .728 OPS against right-handed pitching is a meaningful downtick from the team’s average in all situations (.795). Their home OPS (.751) is worse than their road OPS (.834) as well.
This feels like a great contrarian spot to bet the under. Although both offenses have plenty of firepower, the books have gassed the number up to 9.5. The Braves are 5-3 to the under with a total of 9.5 or higher, and the Dodgers are 4-3. These teams have met six times since the 2021 NLCS and have combined for more than 10 runs just once. Not even their last meeting, which went to extra innings, surpassed the 10-run threshold. Let’s buy the under 9.5 at the reasonable price of -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Dodgers-Braves MLB Bet: Under 9.5 -110 at FanDuel
