It’s Thursday, Aug. 4, just a couple of days after the dust has settled from the MLB trade deadline. Many players are in new uniforms, such as Josh Bell and Juan Soto now on the Padres taking on the Rockies today, or Noah Syndergaard pitching for the Phillies against the Nationals. Many teams are now looking to make that push into the playoffs and the World Series. It is an exciting time for the sport, and if you want to get in on some MLB action, BetMGM is offering a RISK-FREE BET up to $1,000.
This article will have the best picks according to Stokastic models to give you the best chance to win. With so much going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB bets today. Below are three strikeout props and one home run prop — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks
Noah Syndergaard O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Noah Syndergaard will make his Phillies debut against the Washington Nationals tonight. Syndergaard has an 18.9% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.8 strikeouts per inning this season. To reach five strikeouts, he would have to pitch 6.1 innings on average. He has been picking up his strikeout rate, as he has gone over this total in five of his last six starts. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 56% chance of going over this total and a 16% expected ROI.
Best MLB Pick Today: Noah Syndergaard OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Janson Junk O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Janson Junk will pitch to the Oakland Athletics. Junk has a 37.5% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.5 strikeouts per inning — but that is just based on six innings he has pitched this season. In his previous MLB stint in 2021, his strikeout rate was just 14.1%. On the positive side, Oakland has the sixth-highest strikeout rate to righties this season (24%). The expected ROI of this bet, even with the juice, is 41%, making this the best prop bet of the day according to OddsShopper.
Best MLB Pick Today: Janson Junk OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-164)
Kyle Wright O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Kyle Wright has a 24% strikeout rate and averages 0.98 strikeouts per inning, and if he pitches five innings, he should reach five strikeouts. Wright has gone over five innings in 13 of his last 14 starts and in 14 of his 20 total starts this season. The Mets are not a high-strikeout team; Wright faced them previously in April and struck out just three in seven innings, which is likely the reason why this bet is at plus odds at the moment despite his track record. That said, Wright has routinely gone six to seven innings. OddsShopper gives this bet a 60% chance of winning for a 20% expected ROI.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Wright OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Cole Ragans O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Cole Ragans faces the Texas Rangers in his MLB debut. In Triple-A, he had a 27% strikeout rate and averaged 1.11 strikeouts per inning. Typically those numbers do not translate to the major leagues, and pitchers find themselves with lower strikeout rates than they had in the minors. The Stokastic MLB model gives the under a 64% chance of winning.
Best MLB Pick Today: Cole Ragans UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Josh Bell O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Josh Bell will face Kyle Freeland today as the Padres wrap up their series against the Rockies. Freeland has a 4.45 xFIP and allows 1.02 HR/9 this season. His hard-hit allowed rate is 39.6%, however. Bell, on the other hand, has a .212 ISO against lefties this season. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Bell a 17% chance of hitting a home run, while the +650 odds give this bet an expected ROI of 24%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Josh Bell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650)