If you’re looking for the best home run bet today, one name might catch you off guard — but the numbers don’t lie: Austin Wells is today’s smartest swing-for-the-fences play. Bettors often flock to big names for home run props, but the best value lies where the books get it wrong — where a player’s true home run probability outpaces their odds. That’s called expected value, and it’s the foundation of smart betting.
Based on matchup data and sportsbook pricing, Wells is the top +EV HR pick today, and here’s exactly why you should be paying attention.
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Best MLB Home Run Pick Today: Austin Wells
Wells is a left-handed hitter with quiet but serious pop. In 2023, he flashed a .281 ISO vs right-handed pitching. He’s been even better recently, with a .273 ISO over his last two weeks. For a young hitter near the bottom of the lineup, that kind of production gets overlooked by oddsmakers, but not by the data.
Wells faces Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who’s been brutal against lefties this season:
- 4.3 HR/9 allowed to left-handed batters
- .469 ISO and .464 wOBA against lefties
- 46% fly ball rate, meaning lots of elevated contact
That’s a recipe for disaster against a pull-heavy lefty with power like Wells. Bibee leans on four-seamers and changeups to neutralize lefties, but Wells has shown the ability to crush both pitch types.
At +625 odds, Wells only needs to homer around 14% of the time for this bet to break even. But Wells’ true HR probability is closer to 20% to 22%, making this a clear +EV play.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Austin Wells (+625, BetMGM)
