What’s going on, everybody? Eric Lindquist here with your jam-packed Monday edition of Lindy’s Leans, Likes and Locks for MLB. You know the drill — we have the best MLB bets today across the league. It’s still early in the season, so don’t overextend. Be disciplined. Fifth starters are here, and things can get grimy. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
Let’s talk about the weekend real quick. We went nuclear in the MLB home run streets. Freddie Freeman, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker — all went deep. The Dodgers run line cashed as our one lock, and Sunday was a full-on heater.
We’re officially tracking everything in MLB now, and if you’re in the Premium Discord, you’ve already seen the home run calls cashing. If not, now’s a great time to hop in.
Lean – Twins vs. White Sox
Chris Paddack gets the nod for Minnesota. He’s not great, but Martin Perez on the other side for the White Sox is worse. I prefer Minnesota, but I’m not laying the run line with their offense sputtering a bit. Pass for now.
Lean – Mets vs. Marlins
David Peterson vs. Cal Quantrill. Peterson has decent stuff. Quantrill was a fade target for us in Cleveland. Miami at +150 is interesting, but I want a better number to get involved.
Lean – Rangers vs. Reds
Kumar Rocker vs. Brady Singer in Great American Small Park. Rocker has K upside, but how long does he go? Singer was awful last year. Too many question marks.
Lean – Giants vs. Astros
Jordan Hicks vs. Ronel Blanco. Hicks has big stuff but hasn’t figured it out as a starter. Blanco has shown flashes but carries a high walk and barrel rate. Giants at +105 isn’t enough value. I am waiting on bullpen data before making a move.
Lean – Guardians vs. Mariners
Luis Ortiz vs. Kyle Hart. Kyle Manzardo is someone to monitor since he rakes against righties. I need to dig into bullpen usage before betting anything here.
Lean – Tigers vs. Mariners
Jackson Jobe makes his debut for Detroit. He’s electric, and I want to see it before backing him. Emerson Hancock is beatable. Detroit First Five might be a play later.
Lean – Braves vs. Dodgers
The Braves are 0-4, and the Dodgers are rolling. This opened with Dodgers plus money; now it’s closer to even or worse. I’ll pass for now.
Like – Royals Moneyline (-105) vs. Brewers
Kris Bubic vs. Elvin Rodriguez. I don’t trust Milwaukee’s bullpen or lineup. The Royals have a much better pen and are undervalued at this number. Easy click.
Like – Jordan Westburg Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Westburg’s start to the season has been insane: 60% hard-hit rate, 21.1-degree launch angle, .610 xwOBA. He is facing Sean Newcomb, who had a 17.8% walk rate last year. I love this spot.
Like – Rockies +1.5 vs. Phillies
The feast-or-famine Phillies send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, who induces ground balls but doesn’t strike guys out. Rockies have enough pop to keep this close. This is grimy, but I’m on it.
Like – Pirates-Rays Over 8 Runs
Tampa Bay’s spring park plays small. The Pirates lineup isn’t great, but bullpens are shaky and the starters — Carmen Mlodzinski and Drew Rasmussen — aren’t reliable. This should hit nine-plus.
Like – Bowden Francis Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Francis was lights out in the second half of 2024: 1.53 ERA, 56 strikeouts to seven walks. Washington strikes out plenty, and I love this spot for a breakout.
Like – Angels Moneyline (+115) vs. Cardinals
Tyler Anderson vs. Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has an awful contract and awful numbers: .459 xSLG, 42.3% hard-hit rate. The Angels aren’t great, but they’re the better side at this price.
Like – Cubs-Athletics Over 8.5
Joey Estes and Ben Brown are not good. Sacramento’s Triple-A park is hosting, and we’ll see quickly how it plays. Expect runs on both sides.
