The Texas Rangers are in the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees today. The Yankees will trot out RHP Luis Severino (0-2), who hasn’t been good so far this year. Meanwhile, Texas has been one of the better teams in baseball against righties, so we will look for them to continue their strong play in today’s game with our best first five innings bet today.
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Best MLB First Five Bet Today: Texas Rangers | June 24
Texas Rangers F5 Total: O/U 2.5
RHP Luis Severino (0-2) has been a sharp fade to this point in the year. This will mark his seventh start of the season after he debuted late last month. After a strong season last year, Severino’s rates so far this year are quite alarming. In 30 innings, he has a low 20% SO rate, a highish 9.3% walk rate, 1.57 WHIP, .374 wOBA (slightly lower than his .359 xwOBA) and ugly 6.34 xERA and 5.07 xFIP marks. He also allows opposing batters to hit extremely well, as his 12.4% barrel rate, .516 SLG (similar to expected), and 2.40 HR/9 marks suggest. He is vulnerable to batters from both sides of the plate but more so to righties. While these rates are based on a rather small sample size, they all point to Severino as a vulnerable starter. Considering their recent form, the Rangers are a team that can get to him.
Texas has looked elite against righties. Specifically, the Rangers are second in wRC (+123), fourth in both wOBA (.348) and ISO (.187) and have the fifth-highest collective walk rate (9.6%) against righties in the last month of baseball (771 PA). No less than eight batters in today’s expected lineup create runs better than average when facing righties this year, above all Corey Seager (L, 102% better), Ezequiel Duran (R, 37%), Nathaniel Lowe (L, 35%) and Leody Taveras (S, 26%). Texas’ lineup should also include four to five batters that walk at or above average against righties, another plus given Severino’s elevated walk rate. In all, Texas should roll out with a lineup full of quality hitters.
The weather for today’s game favors hitting and run creation, further suggesting that this is a great spot for Texas to flourish offensively. Considering the positive hitting environment, Severino’s early struggles and Texas’ recent form against righties, taking the over on the Rangers’ first five total of 2.5 at +100 (50%) via DraftKings makes a lot of sense. New to DraftKings? Get $150 in bonus bets after signing up here!
Best MLB Player Prop Today: Texas Rangers F5 Over 2.5 +100 at DraftKings
