We didn’t get a home run from him, but Corbin Carroll got a double and secured a profit for those who also trusted him to go over 1.5 bases. We’re still looking for another winner after cashing a +520 ticket on Triston Casas and a +600 ticket on Ryan Noda earlier in the week. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re backing a player suiting up at the Trop today. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Value at the Trop Today
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals | 4:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Wander Franco at DraftKings
You won’t have all day to get your action down on this one. The current number should disappear well before the game begins early this afternoon. Wander Franco sits all the way up at a lofty +700 (12.5%) on DraftKings to hit a home run today. He slots in at only +540 (15.6%) on FanDuel. You won’t find this kind of disparity on such a high-value home run pick every day, so let’s take advantage of the best available number before it gets bid off the board.
Franco takes on the Kansas City Royals and struggling RHP Jordan Lyles (0-11). Lyles owns an atrocious 6.72 ERA and a still-miserable 4.93 xERA. Worse, Lyles has allowed 18 home runs, which is actually less than his 18.5 expected home runs allowed. Of the worst 10 pitchers in home runs allowed, Lyles has the highest no-doubter percentage at 61.1%. He has allowed 10 home runs and 19 extra-base hits to left-handed batters.
Enter Wander Franco. Franco, a switch hitter, is in a fantastic spot to take advantage of Lyles. Franco owns six home runs and 24 extra-base hits against RHPs this year. He has eight total home runs to his name, more than his 6.5 expected home runs, but consistent enough to warrant a wager. However, Tropicana Field has been much better to lefties for doubles and triples than home runs, so make sure to pair this home run pick with one for Franco to record over 1.5 bases at odds of +120 (45.5%) via DraftKings.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Wander Franco +700 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Michael Busch at FanDuel
Let’s pull one from the late slate here. With my pick in the books, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s: the model wants exposure to a batter facing the Houston Astros: L.A.’s Michael Busch. Note that nine other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Busch has been seeing action at third base for the Dodgers lately. He started the first game of this series and has been a frequent member of the lineup since mid-June, but as always with home run picks at FanDuel, make sure he is actually in the lineup before placing your wager — FanDuel doesn’t void if a player records an at-bat even if they weren’t in the starting lineup.
On-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this prop at odds of +600 (14.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +784 (11.3%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this at +870 (10.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Michael Busch +870 at FanDuel
