Despite the excitement a new season brings, or perhaps because of it, taking it easy the first few weeks seems like the right move. This means only betting up to 0.5 units on each pick until we have enough data to work with from this season. With that being said, let’s dive into today’s best MLB first five innings bet for Braves-White Sox.
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet (April 1)
The Braves are in Chicago to begin their three-games series against the White Sox. The White Sox are projected as one of the weaker teams in the league this year, and their starting rotation is very much indicative of that. After an abysmal season last year, right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen will take the mound for the Sox in what could be a short outing for him against one of baseball’s best teams.
In 102.1 innings as both a starter and a reliver (29 games, 16 starts, 2-8), Flexen had a low 15.9% strikeout rate (6.51 per nine), an elevated .374 xwOBA (bottom 3% of the league), high 5.12 xFIP and an even higher 6.20 xERA. Notably, his rates were likewise as bad when zooming in on his 77.2 innings as a starter — .393 wOBA, .552 SLG, 5.09 xFIP. Flexen allowed opposing batters to make great contact, as evidenced by a .503 xSLG (bottom 4%), 41.4% hard-hit rate and a very high 2.20 home runs per nine. Finally, Flexen was vulnerable to batters from both sides of the plate but more so to fellow righties — 432 wOBA (compared to .344), 652 slugging (compared to .447) and 5.74 xFIP (compared to 4.45).
The Braves were the best team in baseball against right-handed pitchers last season, having the highest collective wRC+ (123), wOBA (.357) and ISO (.223). Their lineup this year is largely the same, with Jarred Kelenic being the only new name in it.
Atlanta’s lineup includes no fewer than seven batters that created runs better than average against right-handed pitchers last season, three of them righties. The group is headlined by Matt Olson (.294 average, .351 ISO, .645 slugging, 178 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.343, .262, .605, 174), who smashed right-handed pitchers last year, but also includes Marcell Ozuna (.272, .262, .535, 134) Austin Riley (.280, .220, .500, 123) and Michael Harris II (.290, .191, .481, 115).
While the weather in this one isn’t great, with temperatures in the 40s and the possibility of a rain delay, Atlanta’s first five run line is up to 3.5 on Pinnacle, further suggesting that taking the over on the 2.5 line should prove profitable.
Given Flexen’s form and rates last year, Atlanta’s elite lineup against right-handed pitchers should be able to get to him. As such, we’re backing the Braves to put up runs early in this one and go over their first five total runs.
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet: Atlanta Over 2.5 Runs (-135 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
