We secured a profit last night by cashing a +130 ticket on Juan Soto. Let’s roll that momentum forward into tonight’s slate. I have one MLB player prop pick to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, including one featured below. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Rafael Devers.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Rafael Devers, Taj Bradley
Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Rafael Devers at BetMGM
The Boston Red Sox began their road series against the San Francisco Giants last night. Last night’s game marked the first appearance at Oracle Park for star infielder Rafael Devers. He went 0-for-4 in the contest with three ground outs and one pop out. He’ll look to bounce back this evening against opener RHP Ryan Walker and whoever the Giants use in bulk relief. Walker has been one of San Francisco’s best pitchers with a 2.70 ERA and a 2.57 xERA, but the bulk relief options haven’t been as good.
After Walker’s first time through the order, Boston’s offense should start to produce. Names we could see in bulk relief today include RHP Anthony DeSclafani and LHP Sean Manaea, both of whom last pitched last weekend. Neither option has been effective. DeSclafani owns a 4.88 ERA and 5.07 xERA. Manaea owns a 5.86 ERA and 5.01 xERA. With 15 mph winds blowing straight out the back of center field, batters should get some help in a stadium that already ranks 11th in park factors for doubles and seventh for triples. While home runs are hard to come by at Oracle Park, extra-base hits are not.
Enter Rafael Devers. The star infielder leads the Red Sox in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .379. He also leads the team in actual (25) and expected (26.6) home runs, 22 of which would have gone over the fence at Oracle Park. Devers has generally hit worse on the road this year but could easily go for a double or a multi-hit game. We can buy him at odds of +115 (46.5%) via BetMGM to do just that. Lock in this number before it gets bid off the board.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
OddsShopper’s Target: Taj Bradley at BetMGM
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s model for the second of today’s picks. It sees plenty of value for tonight’s Rays-Astros game, and it strongly believes RHP Taj Bradley is getting overrated. Bradley owns a 5.30 ERA and a 4.23 xERA but has given up the most actual (13) and second-most expected (10.9) home runs on this roster. He’ll take on a feisty Houston Astros lineup that ranks 12th in team xwOBA and fourth-best in strikeouts taken per game (7.87).
Bradley has been a solid strikeout pitcher, but he’ll have a hard time clearing the 5.5 at which the books have pegged this number. While he has gotten there in 10 of his 15 starts, including a six-strikeout game against the Houston Astros, the 22-year-old RHP has usually looked worse when facing teams for a second time. He struck out the Red Sox eight times in his first start against them but only did so six times in his second appearance. Likewise, he struck out the Orioles eight times in his first start against them but only six times in his second.
That said, OddsShopper’s model doesn’t care about stats or trends — it cares about odds. You’ll find the under for Bradley’s strikeouts priced at only -165 (62.3%) via BetMGM, but other books have this at a much steeper number. Pinnacle, a sharp book, even has it at -193 (65.8%). The model believes a fair price is -187 (65.2%), so we’re getting a boatload of edge by playing this at BetMGM, making it one of today’s best MLB player prop picks to watch.
Best MLB Player Prop: Taj Bradley Under 5.5 Strikeouts -165 at BetMGM
