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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Shohei Ohtani, Edward Cabrera (July 31)

The Monday MLB slate is on the smaller side, but we’ve got a pair of exciting games to watch on tap: Phillies-Marlins and Angels-Braves. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Shohei Ohtani.

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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Shohei Ohtani, Edward Cabrera

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 6:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Edward Cabrera at BetMGM

The Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Miami turns to RHP Edward Cabrera this evening, who has looked like two different pitchers at home and on the road. In Miami, Cabrera owns an impressive  2.61 ERA with 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Outside of Miami, Cabrera has a much less impressive 6.28 ERA with 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Those present bettors with a chance to buy Cabrera’s props at a slight discount when he takes the mound at LoanDepot Park.

The Phillies have struggled with strikeouts all season. They have taken the fourth-most strikeouts per game (9.2) and the most through the last three games (13). They have struck out more times per game on the road (9.7) than at home (8.6). Cabrera only managed to record four strikeouts in a road game against the Phillies earlier in the year, but he is averaging 7 strikeouts per home start versus 4.8 strikeouts per game per road start, so even a slightly below-average home game would cash Cabrera’s over.

Let’s trust Cabera to be his usual home self tonight against the Phillies. He recorded only four strikeouts in his last home start but had tallied at least six in the four immediately preceding it. Park factors may explain some of Cabrera’s splits, as the stadium ranks 25th overall and 11th for strikeouts. Lock this wager in at odds of -120 (54.5%) via BetMGM — you’ll find it priced at a slightly shorter -122 (55%) via Pinnacle, a sharp book.

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Best MLB Player Prop: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts -120 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM

Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Shohei Ohtani at BetMGM

It is always hard for me to justify passing on Shohei Ohtani’s total bases when the books hang a number in the plus money. You’ll find the over 1.5 total bases priced at +105 (48.8%) via BetMGM, which is exploitable in tonight’s matchup. He’ll take on RHP Charlie Morton, whose 3.57 ERA is solid but far lower than his 4.68 xERA. Morton has also given up the second-most expected home runs in Atlanta’s rotation with 11.5, more than his 10 actual home runs allowed.

I suspect the market overvalues Morton, leading to Ohtani costing a very reasonable +105 to get a pair of bases. Several factors make this a great spot for him: Ohtani is hitting .324 against RHPs with 49 extra-base hits and 30 home runs. He is also hitting .318 on the road with 32 extra-base hits and 20 home runs. Ohtani will also benefit from a 10 mph breeze blowing out the back of center field at Truist Park today. Ohtani ranks a dominant fourth among all batters in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .437.

Walks, especially intentional ones, have recently become a problem for prospective Ohtani backers. The superstar has begun to earn the Barry Bonds treatment, especially last series, as the Toronto Blue Jays intentionally walked him four times over two games. However, with a more potent Atlanta offense on the other side, I suspect the Braves won’t play Ohtani as conservatively — at least in the series opener. This one will also cost you +105 via Pinnacle, so we’re buying in at a solid price.

Best MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at BetMGM

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