We’ve got a relatively small Monday night slate in the MLB tonight, but there are still plenty of spots to exploit for home run bets tonight. I’m especially interested in tonight’s Braves-Angels game, so let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Atlanta Superstar Today
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels | 7:20 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Ronald Acuna at FanDuel
Two of the MLB’s best offensive players, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, will go head-to-head at Truist Park this evening. Both batters will benefit from 10 mph winds blowing out the back of center field. However, Acuna will draw the easier pitching matchup — at least for power. He’ll take on RHP Griffin Canning, whose 4.46 ERA and 4.05 xERA are solid, but whose 16 actual and 12.8 expected home runs allowed aren’t. With Truist Park ranked seventh in park factors for home runs to RHBs, don’t expect Canning to suddenly benefit from overdue home run regression.
Acuna feasts on righties and is one of the best offensive weapons in baseball right now. He has racked up 114 hits, 42 extra-base hits and 19 home runs against RHPs on the season, good for an elite .998 OPS. He has recorded 24 actual but 24.4 expected home runs this year, good for 11th place in the latter metric. That trails both Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson, but you’ll find those two batters with far shorter odds for tonight’s action. Further, since Olson is a LHB, he won’t benefit as much from the matchup against Canning.
You’ll find Acuna listed at odds between +300 (25%) at BetMGM and +340 (22.7%) at FanDuel to go yard. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Acuna at only +313 (24.1%). Acuna has just four runs this month, but three of those came after the All-Star Break, and he just went yard on Saturday. In a favorable matchup with hitter-friendly conditions, take the best line on the market at FanDuel. I also advise playing Acuna’s total bases, which is normally at -135 (57.5%) at DraftKings, but their 50% profit boost will let you get it up to +111 (47.4%).
New to DraftKings? Take advantage of their signup offer: new users can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ronald Acuna +340 at FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Gabriel Arias at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on a later game. It wants action on Cleveland’s Gabriel Arias, who has four actual home runs and 4.2 expected home runs to his name. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Arias isn’t an everyday player, but when he gets chances to start, he usually delivers. He’ll take on a struggling RHP Noah Syndergaard, who has allowed 12 actual and 10.1 expected home runs. Tonight’s game is a great spot for Arias — he has three home runs against RHPs and four home runs on the road. He’ll also play in Minute Maid Park, which ranks 15th in park factors for home runs to RHBs and will feature 10 mph winds out the back of center field.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +600 (14.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +777 (11.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +870 (10.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Gabriel Arias +870 at FanDuel
