As football approaches, it can be easy to lose sight of the MLB — but value remains to exploit on the baseball betting markets. Our staff has four MLB player props today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Freddie Freeman, for Diamondbacks-Dodgers and Angels-Phillies.
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Best MLB Player Props Today: Picks for Freddie Freeman, Tyler Anderson
Angels-Phillies Player Prop
Tout: Justin Martin
Watch: N/A
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Who: Tyler Anderson at BetRivers
It’s been a complete 180 of a season for LHP Tyler Anderson. The former Dodgers southpaw won 15 games, had an ERA of 2.57, and ranked in the top 10% of the league in BB% last season. Fast forward to this season and he has just been waiting for it to end. The 33-year-old veteran’s 5.73 ERA is his worst since 2019 with a near career-low K rate and BB%. His lack of a put-away pitch extends at-bats and against a red-hot Phillies offense that is seeing the ball extremely well at home is projected to wreak havoc.
RHP Lucas Giolito was able to give the Angels a much-needed five and two-thirds innings last night even though he struggled down the stretch. He issued three walks in the third inning on his way to giving up five runs and receiving the loss. Philadelphia’s 10% BB rate against LHP at home in August is going to be a problem for Anderson, no doubt. He has walked at least two batters in 19 of 22 starts and will get Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, both of whom rank in the top 10% in BB%. Long counts and hits allowed should have Anderson exiting before the sixth inning for the fifth straight game.
Best Angels-Phillies MLB Player Prop: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs -108 at BetRivers
Braves-Rockies Player Prop
Tout: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: N/A
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field
Who: Michael Harris II at DraftKings
The Atlanta Braves are playing in Coors Field again tonight, just one day after they plated a whopping 14 runs. While most of Atlanta’s offensive studs have seen their odds to over 1.5 bases stacked on the over — or the total raised to 2.5 — the books continue to sleep on Michael Harris II. Well, at least some of them are making that mistake. You’ll find Harris priced at -140 (58.3%) to record multiple bases at FanDuel but only -105 (51.2%) via DraftKings. With their 50% MLB profit boost, you can gas this one up to +142 (41.3%) for the first $25.
We’re getting action on Harris for a multitude of reasons. He plays in a stacked Atlanta batting order that should get him an extra at-bat or two. He’ll also play at Coors Field, and the elevation confers some obvious benefits for all batters. He also takes on RHP Peter Lambert, who owns a thoroughly unimpressive .477 xSLG allowed and 5.13 xERA. His .500 SLG allowed to LHB like Harris paired with Harris’ solid .453 SLG against RHPs make an extra-base hit that much likelier for Harris.
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Best Braves-Rockies MLB Player Prop: Michael Harris Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings
Athletics-Mariners Player Prop
Tout: Justin Martin
Watch: N/A
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Who: Ken Waldichuk at BetRivers
The hottest team in baseball has arrived. The Seattle Mariners have taken sole possession of the lead in the AL West with wins in 10 of their last 12 games due in large part to their explosive offense. Unfortunately for LHP Ken Waldichuk, we’ll be fading him tonight on the road where he has struggled. Waldichuk comes into play today as the starter but on an unknown leash. He has started 18 of 29 games this season while throwing 90 or fewer pitches in three of his last five starts. This is due to his high BB%, which ranks in the 11th percentile in baseball, and an ERA of 6.05 that jumps to 7.43 on the road. The Athletics refuse to let him get out of trouble, and that showed last start when he allowed eight hits over five innings of work.
His outs line is skewed a bit due to Waldichuk not being a full-time starter, but even in games where he has thrown at least 70 pitches, he has gone under this line in five of 18 games. This includes the Mariners lighting him up for five runs in less than three innings in May. If we take a look at last night’s 8-0 win for the Mariners, the game script reads much of the same. The Mariners faced off against fellow LHP Kyle Muller for the second time this season and had him out of the game after four innings. Six runs crossed the board against Muller for Seattle. The Mariners are hitting .332 against LHP in August, which ranks in the MLB’s top three during that span. Expect the Seattle offense to keep clicking and extend their winning streak to five games.
Best Athletics-Mariners MLB Player Prop: Ken Waldichuk Under 16.5 Outs -106 at BetRivers
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Player Prop
Tout: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium
Who: Freddie Freeman at BetMGM
This MLB player prop pick is in conflict with part of my usual process. LHB Freddie Freeman is better against LHPs than RHPs. He’ll face RHP Merrill Kelly tonight, who is better at shutting down LHBs than RHBs — he owns a .341 SLG allowed to LHBs but a .398 SLG allowed to RHBs. However, I’m not convinced Kelly can keep this up. Despite his .369 SLG allowed and 2.97 ERA, he owns a .392 xSLG and 4.13 xERA. Let’s fade Kelly against one of the MLB’s best bats tonight, who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium.
Freeman is a great bet to record multiple bases whenever the number ticks up to +100 (50%) or higher. Fortunately, we’ll find this prop priced at exactly that number via BetMGM. FanDuel lists it at -125 (55.6%), while DraftKings has it at -105 (51.2%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it at -103 (50.7%). Freeman is a great bet to do so because of his absurd .322 xBA and .574 xSLG, both of which are in the 98th percentile or higher. Freeman also owns eight hits, six of which went for extra bases, across 24 at-bats against Kelly — good for a .667 SLG — making this line my top MLB player prop pick today.
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Best Diamondbacks-Dodgers MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at BetMGM
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
