Best MLB Prop Bet: Too Much Tyler Glasnow for Pirates (June 4)

The Dodgers are in Pittsburgh to begin their series against the Pirates, and today’s duel between Tyler Glasnow and Jared Jones should be a fun one to watch. With Pittsburgh striking out at an above-average clip against right-handed pitchers, we’re targeting a Tyler Glasnow strikeout prop. Let’s get into the best MLB prop bet today.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today | Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow is having a great season in his first year with the Dodgers. Through 74 innings (12 starts), he has a low 2.56 xFIP (career best), an even lower 2.41 xERA (96th percentile in the league) and a very high 33.2% strikeout rate (11.55 per nine innings, 94th percentile). Glasnow has a healthy 29.2% CSW% and 13.8% swinging-strike rate, though both marks are down from last year (33.4% and 16.4%, respectively). He is in fact projected for a lower 31% strikeout rate by season-long projections, so he should see some negative regression, though not necessarily today against this Pirates team.

Glasnow strikes out batters from both sides of the plate at a high clip — 34.9% of righties and 31.4% of lefties — and throws around 95 pitches per game (should be good for anywhere from five to seven innings, pending efficiency). Notably, he went over today’s line (7.5) in seven out of the last 10 starts.

Pittsburgh has a 25.8% collective strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the last month of baseball (612 plate appearances), third highest in the league. The team’s collective strikeout rate does drop to a middling 24% rate when zooming in on the last two weeks, but this is still an above-average matchup for Glasnow.

Specifically, four batters in Pittsburgh projected lineup strike out at an above-average clip against right-handed pitchers: Oneil Cruz (33.3%), Andrew McCutchen (25.7%), Ji Hwan Bae (26.1%) and Nick Gonzales (21.8%). Given Glasnow’s rates and recent form, getting close to even money at -106 on FanDuel– which is close to those of sharp book Pinnacle — for him to record eight or more strikeouts in tonight’s matchup is too enticing to pass.