Hunting for the best MLB prop bets today? Well, we have got three sneaky-good picks that could pop off — and one of them comes with juicy +430 home run odds. If you’re after MLB home run prop bets today or just looking to lock in sharp plays before the weekend kicks off, this video breaks down the exact picks and the why behind them. Let’s get to the value.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Home Run Props & More
Here’s a quick recap of the featured props:
- Merrill Kelly – Under 2.5 Earned Runs
- Jose Soriano – Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Jose Ramirez – To Hit a Home Run (+430)
These picks aren’t hunches — they’re built using the data-driven Odd Shopper tools, which continue to identify undervalued markets and deliver profit edges daily.
What Is +EV? Understanding Positive Expected Value in Sports Betting
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you’re betting with an edge — the true probability of your bet hitting is greater than what the odds imply. When your bets win more often than the breakeven percentage, you’re making profitable decisions over time. But if they hit less often than the odds suggest, you’re placing –EV bets — and slowly leaking money in the long run.
Example: The Bears are +3.5 home underdogs against the Packers at –110 odds. That price means the breakeven point is roughly 52.4%. If you think the Bears cover more than that, you’ve uncovered a +EV opportunity — a sharp, mathematically sound wager.
