It was an ugly night for this column, but now is a good time to remind that the Shander MLB Parlay hit on the OddsShopper YouTube page. There are no excuses here, but it’s back to work, with some juicy value on this stretched out Wednesday slate. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Wednesday, Aug. 24.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 8/24
Guardians at Padres Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The two biggest things that should stand out with the Guardians tonight are how little they strike out as a team and a decent scoring average on the road. That’s for the first inning, as Cleveland averages 0.50 runs per first inning (RPFI) away from home, one of the better numbers in baseball. But they also limit opponents to an even better number (0.38 RPFI) while travelling, which is third best in all of MLB. Cal Quantrill gets the ball tonight for Cleveland, trying to keep that trend going against a struggling Padres team. Quantrill has kept a WHIP at 1.22 and hasn’t taken a loss over eight straight starts. He’s pitching well and getting decent run support.
Blake Snell has some good bats behind him, averaging 0.60 RPFI at home on the year. But things have recently shifted for the worse in San Diego, and Snell won’t get any early lead. Snell’s WHIP is a little high, but not enough to warrant concern, as the Padres are second best in baseball, holding opponents to just 0.27 RPFI at home.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Guardians at Padres NRFI (-120 BetMGM)
Blue Jays at Red Sox Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
No bet is boiled down to one metric, trend or key stat, but WHIP translating to scoring chances seems to be a solid foundation. Boston hosts Toronto in what should provide multiple scoring chances in the first inning. The variance of this market is wide, so just getting chances is huge. Both Jose Berrios and Brayan Bello are strong targets to go over their hit totals. Berrios doesn’t rely on the strikeout and gives up way too many hard-hit balls, and Bello is atrocious. Carrying a 2.29 WHIP that’s backed by a 12.6% walk rate, Bello is a walking liability to surrender a run in any inning. Boston is near the bottom of the list in RPFI at home, but it has a pitching matchup that plays to contact. Toronto is top 10 in RPFI average on the road.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Blue Jays at Red Sox YRFI (-115 BetMGM)
Twins vs. Astros Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Going against Justin Verlander went about as expected, but that shouldn’t put a pause on this series. Tonight’s game in Houston features two gettable pitchers on the mound in Dylan Bundy and Framber Valdez — the former more for his own doing and the latter more due to the matchup. Despite being scoreless in the first last night, the Twins are still best in baseball, averaging 0.69 RPFI on the road. That’s still a tough task for Valdez despite not having Byron Buxton at the top of Minnesota’s lineup. The Twins face a Houston team that’s scored 0.67 RPFI at home and has had plenty of recent success against Bundy.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Twins vs. Astros YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
