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Categories MLB

MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, May 7 (2024)

Updated May 7, 2024 | 3:03 pm CDT by Isaiah Sirois
The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Sunday, August 4, including a bet for J.D. Martinez...

Yesterday’s MLB props column could’ve gone better — we cashed a ticket for Sean Manaea with the help of our MLB +EV betting tools, but we didn’t get our Francisco Lindor or Adolis Garcia tickets. Let’s bounce back tonight, which is also FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. I recommend getting some action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and a bet from our MLB betting model. You can even take our tools for a spin yourself for 50% off, just keep scrolling to find out how!

Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.

MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 7

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MLB Player Prop Bet Today: J.D. Martinez

The New York Mets will visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, and it’s expected to be RHP Miles Mikolas on the mound for the home team. Mikolas is an innings-eater at this point in his career, as his 5.68 ERA and 5.33 xERA suggest. He has also coughed up 7.4 expected home runs, six of which would’ve cleared the fences of his home park.

These players squared off just under two weeks ago, and Martinez mashed a double that would’ve cleared the fences at 20 ballparks, just not either Citi Field or Busch Stadium. Although Martinez is yet to hit a home run this year, he has 1.6 expected home runs.

Since joining the Mets as a late signing in free agency, Martinez is slashing .273/.333/.333, which suggests he is making good contact but has struggled with power. However, his .434 xSLG, 90.5 mph average exit velocity and 14.3% barrel rate are all well above the league average.

It’s only a matter of time before Martinez goes yard, and it could easily be Mikolas who gives him the pitch he needs. Once Mikolas exits, Martinez will get a Cardinals bullpen that ranks tied for 12th-worst in home runs allowed (14), which also helps his case.

We’re getting Martinez to go yard at odds of +400 at FanDuel. We can also get him to tally multiple bases at odds of +110 at DraftKings. I advise adding both wagers to your card just in case he comes up short of the fences like he did against Mikolas in their last meeting.

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at DraftKings & Home Run +400 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our J.D. Martinez total bases live odds page!


MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Gil

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros will do battle on TBS this evening, and, even thought it hasn’t been the start Houston wanted, the Astros lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.5). Our MLB betting model wants action on New York’s starting pitcher, RHP Luis Gil, to stay under 5.5 total strikeouts this evening. However, it doesn’t reach that conclusion because of Houston’s efficient at-bats — it does so because of the off-market price available at Fanatics, which sports enough positive expected value (+EV) to warrant a wager:

Of every sportsbook on the market, you’ll only find the under 5.5 priced at +120 on Fanatics and PointsBet; every other public book has this one trading in the +110 to +100 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this one for odds of +110.

Our model identifies Gil’s under as a +EV bet because of that market disparity. But the tools really help us understand the amount of value we’re getting on this line, as we know that there’s enough +EV for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $12.

The model works by comparing all the odds across the market and weighing them for book sharpness. With Pinnacle’s sharp odds and low hold, they stand to lose more for posting an inefficient line, so we’re getting great value by playing the -105 at Hard Rock. Even the -110 at Fanatics has +EV!

Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!

MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Gil Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts +120 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Luis Gil total strikeouts live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Estevan Florial

The model also works for home run picks, and it absolutely loves this bet for Estevan Florial tonight. Florial and the Cleveland Guardians will take on the Detroit Tigers tonight, and that means a matchup with RHP Kenta Maeda, who has coughed up 7.4 expected home runs, the most of anyone on the slate.

But while I like this play for projection-based reasons, our tools like it for market-based ones. We’re getting a massively off-market number at FanDuel right now: while most public books have Florial priced +475 and +425 to go yard, you can buy him at +750 on FanDuel.

As laid out in my writeup on home run betting strategy, there’s no such thing as a good home run bet without a good number. The implied odds of Florial going yard tonight are 11.8% at FanDuel but are 17.2% at Pinnacle, which is a massive difference and more than enough of one to make up for the fact Florial has just three actual and 2.1 expected home runs to his name this season.

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Estevan Florial to Hit a Home Run +750 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Estevan Florial home runs live odds page!

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OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

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Isaiah Sirois

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Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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