Here we go with a jam-packed Saturday slate of baseball! The good news is that we still hit one of our picks yesterday, staving off the reverse sweep. The better news is that the season record bumps up to 71-57. There are a couple of vulnerable pitching matchups to target for a YRFI play or two, but identifying the best value for any NRFI is a bit tougher. Let’s look at the top first-inning bets and picks for Saturday’s exciting slate.
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Best NRFI/YRFI Bets & Picks Today: Finding Value in the First Inning
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins First Inning Bet
The Phillies barely scored a win against the Marlins last night, needing a three-run surge in the top of the ninth to take the lead. The focus tonight flips back to the opening inning, where LHP Braxton Garrett is going to have a rough one. Kyle Schwarber is always live to get on base or clear the bases, and Trea Turner has picked up, too. Garrett’s 27.5% strikeout rate is nothing to ignore because he can get at least one of them in the first.
But much like his counterpart in LHP Ranger Suarez, there just aren’t a lot of spots to pick. Suarez will be tested with his 23.4% strikeout rate not being dominant enough, and Miami can easily work a walk or see Luis Arraez continue his tear.
Best YRFI Pick: Phillies-Marlins YRFI +110 at BetMGM
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals First Inning Bet
LHP Andrew Heaney will handle the heavy lifting here, although it might look like he’s still throwing warm-up pitches. His 25.1% strikeout rate is enough to build on here with the expectation he is at one to two strikeouts after the first inning. Washington has seen a couple of key guys increase their strikeout rates, allowing for Heaney to come in and blow at least one opening batter out of the frame.
The bottom half of this inning should go quietly, so the biggest pressure now resides with RHP Jake Irvin. If you’re wondering why the NRFI odds are north of +100, look no further than Irvin. His 16.8% strikeout rate is bad, and his 10.9% walk rate is even worse. The ratio doesn’t give the NRFI bettor much confidence, but he has limited opposing batters to a .243 xBA. He’s been able to work around a lower strikeout rate by pitching to contact. It’s enough to squeeze out of any first-inning jam.
Best NRFI Pick: Rangers-Nationals NRFI +100 at BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers First Inning Bet
It’s never an easy feat to place a YRFI bet in a game started by RHP Kevin Gausman. No, this isn’t some half-court heat check by Steph Curry, rather, we’re identifying a narrow scope that has plenty of value. Gausman is as good as advertised: his 32.7% strikeout to 6.1 % walk rate is nearly impenetrable, and Detroit is just as bad as you’ve heard. The Tigers have a small window of opportunity to knock off Gausman, which comes from aggressive swinging in the opening frame
RHP Matt Manning goes for Detroit but just hasn’t been stretched out enough. Toronto is starting to catch fire again, and that comes with higher-scoring games. They should jump right out and attack Manning.
Best YRFI Pick: Blue Jays-Tigers YRFI +110 at BetMGM
