Friday features a high-profile interleague matchup between the Padres and Yankees that will air on Apple TV+. The Padres are not having the best month of May, but they have won three of their last four and are thus 1.5-run favorites on the road at Yankee Stadium. However, they are sending a guy to the mound who has been struggling a bit this year, and there are some props we can hammer to take advantage of that. Let’s get into the best Padres-Yankees bet for Friday, May 26.
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Best MLB Padres-Yankees Bet & Prediction
San Diego Padres-New York Yankees Odds
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
San Diego Padres: -115 | New York Yankees: -105
Over 9.0: -120 | Under 9.0: +100
Joe Musgrove is reputed as a high-end pitcher, but this season he has been off to a rough start. He has only made five starts, but in those starts he is surrendering a 1.583 WHIP, nearly a 41% hard-hit rate and a .535 slugging, and he has only allowed fewer than six hits once. It is not a great time for Musgrove to be facing a Yankees lineup that is finally healthy — especially not in Yankee Stadium with its short right-field porch, and he will be taking on at least one hefty left-handed bat that can take advantage.
Anthony Rizzo has quietly been carrying the mantle for the Yankees through this early stretch of the season, batting over .300 and leading the team in hits. He has recorded at least one total base in way more than half his games as well (78%). As such, it is a little odd that his line on BetMGM (and most sportsbooks) is 0.5 total bases; BetRivers seems to be on the smarter track by setting it at 1.5.
Rizzo is projecting for 1.8 total bases in this matchup, well over the 0.5 line on BetMGM.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Rizzo below:
The under odds are long at -155, but OddsShopper‘s model has the true odds at -168, so this play is crushing the market on BetMGM Sportsbook. That is leading to a 3% EV on a 63% win rate. Lock this bet in now and get paid back up to $1,000 if your first bet loses!
Best Padres-Yankees MLB Bet: Anthony Rizzo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-155, BetMGM)