Skip to content
logo
Search Icon
​
Log InSign Up
Top Bets
Top Bets
My Bets
My Bets
Portfolio Lab
Portfolio Lab
Help
Help
Categories MLB

Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: In Atlanta We Trust (July 4)

July 04, 2023 | 10:50 AM by Isaiah Sirois
The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Friday, April 19, include Ronald Acuna, who takes on the Rangers...

Happy Fourth of July! We’ve got a loaded slate of baseball action, with games going on from late in the morning until late at night. In today’s column, we’ll hone in on two games: Braves-Guardians and Blue Jays-White Sox, both of which won’t get underway until the late slate. Without further ado, let’s dive into the best NRFI/YRFI bets and picks for today’s action.

First-inning sweats are some of the best in the MLB betting business. If you’re looking for the best NRFI/YRFI picks, OddsShopper has you covered. Check out our guide to NRFI/YRFI betting and come back each day for the best NRFI/YRFI bets — we post daily NRFI/YRFI articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to find NRFI/YRFI picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.

React App

Best Offers in Ohio

Ohio
State

Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets

Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians YRFI

Can we ever leave the Atlanta Braves off a YRFI card? The Braves are the best team in baseball at putting runs on the board early, as they have done so in 42.7% of their first innings. They’ll line up against RHP Shane Bieber tonight, which is driving the price down, as the public still likely sees Bieber as an elite pitcher.

Despite what the public may think, Bieber has struggled this year. He owns a 3.48 ERA and 4.70 xERA and has given up more than his share of home runs (12) and expected home runs (13.3) — unsurprisingly, he makes a great Dinger Tuesday target. That damage could easily come in the first inning.

Even if the Braves can’t get on the board early, the Cleveland Guardians will get a chance as well. The Guardians only score a first-inning run 28.8% of the time, but they’ll benefit from taking on the inexperienced LHP Kolby Allard. Further, even though Cleveland’s rate slots in at a relatively low number, we get raw odds of 71.5% when we combine it with Atlanta’s, far better than the -120 (54.6%) from BetMGM.

Best YRFI Pick: Braves-Guardians -120 at BetMGM

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox YRFI

I’ve got my eye on another game from today’s card. We’ll lock in a wager on the late slate with this one. Although both the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox will start well-known pitchers in RHP Chris Bassitt and RHP Lucas Giolito, respectively, the two have combined for relatively unimpressive numbers.

Let’s dive into their xERA and xHRs. Bassitt’s 4.06 ERA is unsustainably low relative to his 4.51 xERA. Likewise, Giolito’s 3.53 ERA is much lower than his 4.19 xERA. Giolito ranks 10th among all pitchers in xHR allowed (16.1) while Bassitt ranks 27th (13.5). It only takes one swing to cash a YRFI bet, and both pitchers have been vulnerable to the long ball.

These offenses haven’t been super efficient this year, especially early in games. Toronto ranks only 14th in YRFI% (29.4%), much higher than 25th-ranked Chicago (24.4%). However, both teams have been underperforming their expected stats. Toronto’s weighted on-base average (.325) slots in slightly below its expectation (.332), as does Chicago’s (.302 to .306). These offenses will benefit from positive regression eventually — why not tonight?

Best YRFI Pick: Blue Jays-White Sox -110 at BetMGM

Categories MLB
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Juan Soto, Jesus Luzardo (July 4)
Best NASCAR Bets for the 2023 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta
Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

Next Story

Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!

Trending & Related

Home Run Derby Betting Strategy: How Experts Bet the HR Derby

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Strikeout Props & More From OddsShopper Experts (June 22)

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Video Breakdown of Portfolio EV’s Top Strikeout Props (June 20)

Betting 101

What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting

PrizePicks Cheat Sheet Today: How to Use a PrizePicks Optimizer

Get Portfolio EV and Expert Picks … FREE! Just Follow These Simple Steps

Underdog Fantasy Cheat Sheet: How to Find the Best Picks Today

Sports Betting Resources

  • Positive EV NFL Bets
  • Expert NFL Picks
  • Live NBA Odds
  • Positive EV NBA Bets
  • Expert NBA Picks
  • Live NFL Odds
  • NFL Parlay Calculator
  • Positive EV MLB Bets
  • Expert MLB Picks
  • Positive EV College Football Bets
  • Expert College Football Picks

Featured Articles

Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
July 24, 2025 10:11 am | Sam Smith
Unlock Exclusive Picks From Lindy & Friends for Just $5!
July 22, 2025 11:05 am | Sam Smith
Open Championship Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions (2025)
July 16, 2025 8:42 am | Ben Rasa
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
July 10, 2025 11:30 am | Isaiah Sirois
MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
July 7, 2025 8:29 am | Dave Loughran
What is a Futures Bet? How to Make Money Betting on Futures
June 20, 2025 9:41 am | Isaiah Sirois

Related Articles

Best NRFI Bets Today: Winning Strategy for First Inning Betting
July 23, 2025 8:13 am | Sam Smith
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
July 22, 2025 11:02 am | Isaiah Sirois
Home Run Derby Betting Strategy: How Experts Bet the HR Derby
July 14, 2025 10:04 am | Sam Smith
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Brandon Woodruff (July 12)
July 12, 2025 9:40 am | Danny Burke
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Dansby Swanson (July 9)
July 9, 2025 1:06 pm | Danny Burke
MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
July 7, 2025 8:29 am | Dave Loughran

College Football Futures & Win Totals: 3 Sharp Bets to Lock In Now | Get More Expert Picks for Just $1!
July 25, 2025 10:32 am
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
July 24, 2025 10:11 am
What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting
July 24, 2025 10:09 am
PrizePicks Cheat Sheet Today: How to Use a PrizePicks Optimizer
July 24, 2025 10:09 am
Best NRFI Bets Today: Winning Strategy for First Inning Betting
July 23, 2025 8:13 am
Get Portfolio EV and Expert Picks … FREE! Just Follow These Simple Steps
July 23, 2025 8:11 am
Underdog Fantasy Cheat Sheet: How to Find the Best Picks Today
July 23, 2025 8:10 am
Unlock Exclusive Picks From Lindy & Friends for Just $5!
July 22, 2025 11:05 am
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
July 22, 2025 11:02 am
Best Boom Fantasy Promo Code Today
July 21, 2025 8:09 am

How Can I Find the Best Sports Betting and DFS App Bonuses?

If you're a new sports bettor, it's hard to know where to start. In fact, it's simpler than it seems, because there are incredible sportsbook bonus codes and DFS app promo codes that are expressly designed to help new players get started building a bankroll. As a new player, it's often correct to focus on taking advantage of as many of these offers as you can. Even better, having access to more books lets you take advantage of line shopping so that you can always get the best payout for your winning bets. Books like BetMGM and bet365 have great first-bet offers for new players. On the DFS App side, operators like Underdog and Sleeper offer matches on your first deposit up to a certain amount. Use the links below to explore the best sportsbook promo codes. Once you get signed up with a bonus, make sure to use OddsShopper's Free Bet Converter to maximize your beginning bankroll

Best BetMGM Bonus Code

Get a bonus code for BetMGM

Best Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code

Get a promo code Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Promo Code

Best DraftKings Promo Code

Get a promo code for DraftKings

Best FanDuel Promo Code

Use a promo code for FanDuel

Best PrizePicks Promo Code

Claim a promo code for PrizePicks

Best UnderDog Fantasy Promo Code

Get a promo code for UnderDog

Join the ranks of the OddsShopper Hall of Fame

  • Free Expert Picks

    • Free NBA Picks
    • Free MLB Picks
    • Free NFL Picks
    • Free NHL Picks
    • Free NCAAB Picks
    • Free NCAAF Picks
    • Free Golf Picks
    • Free UFC Picks
    • Free EPL Picks
    • Free Tennis Picks
    • Free WNBA Picks
  • Positive EV Bets

    • Positive EV NBA Bets
    • Positive EV MLB Bets
    • Positive EV NFL Bets
    • Positive EV NHL Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAB Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAF Bets
    • Positive EV Golf Bets
    • Positive EV UFC Bets
    • Positive EV EPL Bets
    • Positive EV Tennis Bets
    • Positive EV WNBA Bets
  • Betting Tools

    • Arbitrage Opportunities
    • Parlay Builder
    • PrizePicks Entry Builder
    • Underdog Entry Builder
    • Sleeper Entry Builder
    • Free Bet Converter
  • Articles

    • All Articles
    • NBA Articles
    • NFL Articles
    • NCAAF Articles
    • MLB Articles
    • PGA Articles
    • NHL Articles
    • NASCAR Articles
    • MMA Articles
  • Betting Calculators

    • Expected Value Calculator
    • Hold Calculator
    • Parlay Calculator
    • Odds Converter
  • Live Odds

    • Live NBA Odds
    • Live MLB Odds
    • Live NFL Odds
    • Live NHL Odds
    • Live NCAAB Odds
    • Live NCAAF Odds
    • Live Golf Odds
    • Live UFC Odds
    • Live EPL Odds
    • Live Tennis Odds
  • Sportsbook Promo Codes

    • BetMGM Bonus Codes
    • Bet365 Bonus Codes
    • FanDuel Promo Codes
    • DraftKings Promo Codes
    • Caesars Promo Codes
    • BetRivers Promo Codes
    • Sleeper Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Betr Picks Promo Codes
  • About Us

    • Contact Us
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • Stokastic
OddsShopper Logo
© 2024 Stokastic.All Rights reserved.
This site contains commercial content, We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. OddsShopper makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.