We’ve been SOOO close to cashing these no run first inning bet parlays lately. However, we’ve been winning some of these YRFI/NRFI bets at +100 odds or better, so we’ve still been doing just fine!
As we move along in the playoffs, our pickings are slimmer than ever, but I still see some value on the board for our no run first inning picks today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for updates throughout the day; it’s the best place to stay up to date if something changes in our bets.
Best YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves First Inning Bet
I’m still baffled by how the Phillies refused to cash our YRFI in Game 1 after getting so many men on base. Of all the seasonings, yes, I’m choosing salt. Very salty still.
Much of the same analysis from Saturday applies here. Yes, I’m very much aware that Max Fried has been an absolute UNIT on the mound this year. Yes, I’m aware he is 13-1 on NRFIs. Yes, I’m aware he’s left-handed and the Phillies are STACKED with left-handed bats. And I really don’t care. What I do care about is his first-inning ERA, which is his second-highest inning ERA (3.25), and the 16 career home runs he’s allowed in the first. Not to mention the .299 average, eight home runs and 12 doubles he’s allowed to Phillies hitters in 194 career at-bats. The Phillies offense is strong, and if there’s any time hitters can get to Fried, it’s early.
The Braves looked a bit out of sorts in Game 1 and couldn’t get the bats going. After watching this team plate run after run all season long, it’s extremely hard to imagine them getting blanked in back-to-back games, despite Philadelphia having ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has a 26-6 record on no run first innings this season, but he too has a career first-inning ERA over 3.00 (3.45 to be exact). Atlanta hitters are familiar with Wheeler and have registered 286 at-bats against the righty. In those at-bats, Braves hitters have 29 extra-base hits (12 homers, 16 doubles, 1 triple) and they YRFI’d him once already this season. With the Braves knowing they need to win Game 2 tonight, I expect them to really press the issue on scratching a run across in the bottom of the first. Don’t be surprised if you see Ronald Acuna looking to run wild if he gets on and get himself into scoring position, which is always a welcome sign when we’re rooting for fun.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Phillies-Braves for -106 at BetRivers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers First Inning Bet
Seeing Clayton Kershaw get smacked in the playoffs was not a surprise for me, but seeing the Diamondbacks just absolutely NUKE him … that was surprising.
I think we can go right back to rooting for fun in this game. The Arizona offense is extremely athletic and has taken full advantage of the new MLB rules that have caused a spike in the running game. With Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte atop the lineup, they’re no stranger to getting on and swiping a bag or two. This lineup has some thump in it as well, with Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. For the Diamondbacks tonight, they’ll be squaring off against rookie Bobby Miller, who is 16-6 on NRFIs this season. However, the 24-year-old righty has zero postseason experience, and I’m always willing to walk down Narrative Street in a pitcher’s first outing in the playoffs — especially when it’s a must-win game for the Dodgers after they got dog-walked in Game 1.
But the real fun begins when the Dodgers come up in the bottom of the first. Yes, we might get the D-backs to plate one in the top half, but I expect to see all Dodgers hitters locked-TF-in at the plate. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman … the whole gang is going to be ready to pour it on with zero effs given that Zac Gallen is on the mound. The Dodgers have seven home runs against Gallen in 133 at-bats and have roughed up the Arizona righty for 11 runs in 10 innings across two starts this season, which included a YRFI. I can’t pass up the chance to get the second-best offense in baseball needing runs at +100 tonight. It’s against my religion.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Diamondbacks-Dodgers for +100 at bet365
Monday’s YRFI/NRFI Parlay
We’re firing up this parlay for +311 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. They’ve got a 25% profit boost right now for all MLB bets today, and we have to take advantage of these profit boosts to maximize our winnings.
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