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Categories MLB

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for May 21 (2024)

Updated May 21, 2024 | 12:04 pm CDT by Isaiah Sirois
Home Run Pick Today for April 10: Bombs Away for ...

Few sweats are more entertaining than home run bets. I love them, our Discord loves them — and, of course, our staff loves them. It happens to be Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, so we can score some bonus bets back even if we can’t convert on a home run pick today. Let’s run through how the promotion works and then get into our Dinger Tuesday picks. If any of these home run picks hit, you will be able to get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 — keep reading to find out how!

Here’s how Dinger Tuesday works: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:

Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | May 21

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Best Offers in Ohio

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What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR allowed (source):

Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 8.8 xHR
9 xHR at Progressive Field

Griffin Canning (LAA): 8.2 xHR
8 xHR at Minute Maid Park

Joe Musgrove (SD): 7.9 xHR
9 xHR at Great American Ball Park

Joe Ryan (MIN): 7.4 xHR
7 xHR at Nationals Park

Trevor Rogers (MIA): 6.3 xHR
5 xHR at loanDepot Park

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Wrigley Field (CHC vs. ATL)
22 mph to RCF, 83° F, 44% humidity

Busch Stadium (STL vs. BAL)
20 mph to RCF, 92° F, 42% humidity

Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. DET)
17 mph to CF, 80° F, 56% humidity

Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. LAA)
14 mph to CF, 85° F, 72% humidity

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. ARI)
10 mph to RCF, 65° F, 70% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

ATL @ CHC
o10.5-124

SD @ CIN
o9.5+100

DET @ KC
o9-115

NYM @ CLE
o9-115

BAL @ STL
o9-110

OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks

If any of these Dinger Tuesday picks win, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 by using code “DINGER” — click here to subscribe.

@GEhrenbergDFS Julio Rodriguez – SEA: +600

@EricLindquist Kyle Schwarber – PHI: +265

@JazzrazDFS JT Realmuto – PHI: +330

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Carlos Correa – MIN: +900

@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350
Full analysis below!

@EMacDFS Anthony Santander – BAL: +310

@Loughy_D Ryan Jeffers – MIN: +330

Home Run Pick Analysis: William Contreras & Jose Ramirez

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600

Here’s a simple scientific formula for home runs:

Flyball Hitters + 22 mph winds out + Wrigley Field

We get that very situation tonight when Braves starter Charlie Morton faces the Cubs in an extremely gusty Wrigley. Lefty slugger Michael Busch will be lurking in the middle of the lineup.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Busch is hitting 44% of his balls in the air with 33.3% hard contact and 52.2% medium contact.

While the batting average is only .245, Busch possess immense power and ranks in 87th percentile in the league in Barrel Percentage, per Baseball Savant.

On a night like tonight when the wind is blowing out over 20 mph, any ball in the air struck with any kind of decent force has a great chance to leave the yard.

@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350

The Houston Astros get to host the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning in a favorable matchup for them tonight. It hasn’t been smooth sailing in Houston this year, but that’s no fault of Kyle Tucker, who is slashing .288/.421/.618 thus far. Tucker’s .299 xBA (92nd percentile) and .588 xSLG (96th percentile) are both elite.

Tucker will also benefit from facing a RHP. He is slashing .296/.433/.630 against opposite-handed pitchers this season with 16 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. Meanwhile, Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, allowing them to slash .294/.350/.505 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs.

This one is in Minute Maid Park, and we should see 14 mph winds blowing out through center field tonight in Houston. The 85-degree weather and 72% humidity also stand to help carry the ball out of the park. Tucker is slashing .315/.466/.696 at his home stadium with 17 extra base hits and eight home runs. While he owns only 10.9 expected home runs, he has 15 expected home runs in Houston.

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Additional Offers in Ohio

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OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

Categories MLB
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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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