Looking for the best home run bets today? Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics is flying under the radar and brings the perfect mix of power, matchup advantage and betting value. He’s today’s top HR pick based on expected value.
Boost your bankroll long-term with Portfolio EV. Discover more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page today!
Best MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brent Rooker
Rooker hit 39 home runs last season, and he’s already hit four homers in his first 17 games of 2025. What makes him even more appealing is that 24 of those 39 home runs last year came on the road. Despite a brief homer drought, he just broke out with a multi-hit performance, making this a great time to buy back in.
Rooker faces Jonathan Cannon, who’s allowed three home runs in just 14 innings this season (that’s 1.93 HR per nine). Cannon is a right-hander, and Rooker has proven he can crush same-handed pitching — he has a career .816 slugging in this split.
The game is being played at Guaranteed Rate Field, which is basically neutral in terms of ballpark factor. With mild weather expected and no major wind interference, the ball should carry reasonably well in Chicago tonight.
You can grab Rooker to hit a home run at +425 odds at BetMGM, which implies about a 19% chance. But based on his power profile and the pitcher matchup, Rooker’s true home run probability is closer to 25%. That’s a big edge — and exactly what makes this a +EV bet.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Brent Rooker (+425, BetMGM)
