If you want the best home run bet today, Ben Rice of the Yankees is today’s top value play. With elite batted-ball metrics, a favorable pitching matchup and an underrated ballpark edge, Rice is the best home run pick for April 17.
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Best MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ben Rice
Rice may not be a household name yet, but his bat is making noise. Through the first few weeks of 2025, Rice has already hit five home runs and ranks top 5 in MLB in barrel rate — putting him in the same category as names like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.
Rice’s hard-hit rate and fly ball launch angle are ideal for home run production. He’s consistently making dangerous contact and has already proven he can take big league arms deep.
Rice faces Taj Bradley, who has has been more hittable against left-handed hitters. Last season, Bradley allowed a .749 OPS to lefties, and he relies on a fastball-heavy approach that matches up poorly against Rice’s pull-power profile. As a left-handed batter facing a righty with homer issues, Rice is in a dream spot to do damage.
Tonight’s game won’t be at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field — it’s being played at George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, a temporary venue for the Rays. This park is much more favorable for home runs, especially for left-handed hitters like Rice.
The short right-field porch and warm, humid Florida weather create excellent conditions for the ball to carry. Early-season games at this park have already seen multiple home run bursts, and Rice, who has spring training experience here, is well positioned to take advantage.
You can bet Ben Rice to hit a home run at +450 at FanDuel, which implies just a 17% chance. But based on his power metrics and tonight’s matchup, Rice’s true home run probability is closer to 20% to 21%.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Ben Rice (+450, FanDuel)
