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MLB Home Run Pick Today for Sunday, April 21 (2024)

We have afternoon baseball rolling along all day, and we have some work to do to find a good home run pick in the late-afternoon window. Here we will attack that game with a home run bet from our MLB betting model, specifically Julio Rodriguez. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! I even have a few extra picks on my Twitter today. Also, check out our guide about how to bet on MLB player props.

MLB Player Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, April 21

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MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez

The MLB season is nearing a month old, and somehow Julio Rodriguez is still without a home run. It’s not a matter of missed time; he’s seen action in all 20 Mariners games. However, the power numbers are not there at all.

Rodriguez’s slugging percentage the last two years was .495, and his ISO before this year was a strong .216. Those both indicate high-end power numbers — his career slugging would place him around No. 20 in 2023. But this year Rodriguez is slugging just .295 and posting an ISO of .039. That’s not even in the top 150 this year.

Now, we could chalk that up to a fluke and play the regression angle, or we can call it a trend to exploit. Today we’re going with the former.

Though Rodriguez only has three extra-base hits on the season (all doubles), the game environment is about as friendly as it gets on Sunday. For one, it’s at Coors Field, aka a power paradise. Two, Cal Quantrill is on the mound, who is allowing a .600 slugging at home this year and a .605 slugging (.988 OPS) to righties. Those reverse splits look great for Rodriguez, who really just needs to get one out of the park to resume his career 30-homer-a-year pace.

FanDuel has easily the friendliest odds for him to do so, with the +420 far outpacing sharp book Pinnacle at +334. Every other sportsbook has Rodriguez to hit a home run as double-digit -EV. FanDuel, on the other hand, is 3.5% +EV, which makes this home run pick worth of a small sprinkle.

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez (+420 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Julio Rodriguez home run live odds page!

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