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Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Sunday, April 21

Day 1 of the true playoffs went pretty chalk. But Day 2 should be a bit more variable, with some interesting spots and injury questions that we really need to take note of. Here I’ve found a couple bets that are worth some action, thanks to OddsShopper Premium. Let’s get into the best NBA player prop picks for Josh Giddey and James Harden. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More

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Josh Giddey Player Prop

On the one hand, Giddey has been lighting it up on the boards as of late, even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup, which has limited Giddey’s need to have the ball as much to reach 26 points + rebounds + assists. On the same hand, the Pelicans are also without Zion Williamson, thus taking a semi-competent rebounder off the floor.

But on the other hand, the Pelicans are without Williamson, which means they do not have by far their best player and only real shot at keeping this series competitive.

As of the morning, the Thunder are 8- to 8.5-point favorites over New Orleans. This game has the second-highest total of the slate, but 216.5 isn’t anything grand — so Vegas expects the Thunder to roll, more or less.

A lopsided game means less time for the starters and fewer chances for Giddey to load up the stat sheet. Maybe he helps build a Thunder lead with a triple-double or something close to that, but OddsShopper Premium is giving Giddey a 56% chance of falling shy of 25.5 PRA.

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On top of that, we are getting good value from bet365, as its -115 odds are much better than basically every other book in the industry. Sharp book Pinnacle is all the way down to -146, and the next-closest widely available operator to bet365’s odds is BetMGM at -120. Those odds are also +EV, but they do not compare to the +5.3% we’re getting from bet365.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Josh Giddey Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at bet365)
For the best price currently available, check out our Josh Giddey PRA live odds page!

James Harden Player Prop

Let’s stick with bet365 because that sportsbook is leading the pack right now in terms of favorable odds. Jumping from the evening game to the afternoon slate, James Harden under 9.5 assists is shaping up to be basically the exact same bet as the Giddey under — same win expectancy, same True Odds, same +EV calculation. The only difference is a slightly lower recommended bet size.

The absence of Kawhi Leonard may lead some to Harden’s over since the ball will likely stick in his hand a bit more. But keep in mind this is playoff Harden now. That’s a different animal, and not in a good way. Harden averaged 8.5 assists in 2023-24, and though Leonard being out and a high-total game environment may in theory tick up the assists, the playoff atmosphere should knock that right back down.

Of course, that’s not the most scientific analysis, so let’s break down what we really like about this bet.

Once again, the industry is putting this at -120 at best, with DraftKings serving as the next-best option. That is what is providing value here: Over a long-term sample, +EV bets are going to be profitable. Maybe Harden will be a key cog in the Clippers’ offense today, and maybe he gets a bunch of assists with Leonard out. However, the results prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.

For more picks, sign up for OddsShopper Premium. You can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week (or month) for 50% off (regular price of $14.95 weekly, $49.95 monthly)! Got more questions? Read our guide to using +EV tools!

NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 9.5 Assists (-115 at bet365)
For the best price currently available, see our James Harden live odds page!

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OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

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