We saw plenty of home runs last night, but none from the two players featured in this column. However, bettors who got action on one of our picks to record two-plus bases, as I advised, still got credit: William Contreras hit an automatic (not ground-rule) double. We’re still looking for another winner after Wednesday’s +420 ticket on Corey Seager, but I think we’ll get one tonight. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today, which include Masataka Yoshida. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Big Day for Two Longshots
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Pick: Masataka Yoshida
It’s bold to take a lefty to homer at Fenway Park, but that’s exactly what we’re doing today with Masataka Yoshida. DraftKings Sportsbook has gotten a bit too comfortable and is hanging a number that I just can’t resist, especially when compared to the pricing at other outlets. More on that number later.
Yoshida, Boston’s 29-year-old rookie outfielder from Japan, has seven home runs and 25 extra-base hits to his name this year. Of those, six home runs and 21 extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers. The Yankees will start RHP Clarke Schmidt (2-6) tonight.
Schmidt has struggled with allowing power as well. In his 31 at-bats against Boston hitters, Schmidt has given up three home runs, including one in his most recent start against Boston, which came last Sunday. Schmidt has given up three home runs already in June and 11 this season.
Yoshida has also looked great at Fenway Park. Through 124 at-bats in his home stadium, Yoshida has an OPS of .932 with 17 extra-base hits and four home runs. As I did with Contreras yesterday, I’ll be targeting Yoshida on both the home run and total base markets.
As I alluded to earlier, the asking price is too low at +800 (11.1%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. You’ll find it a +630 (13.7%) on FanDuel. Yoshida hasn’t hit a home run since late May but just nailed a pair of doubles last night. Let’s look for him to keep that momentum rolling.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Masataka Yoshida +800 at DraftKings
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels | 4:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: MJ Melendez
Matt Olson didn’t deliver for the model yesterday, but it was right to target the Atlanta Braves. OddsShopper’s model now wants exposure to a member of the Kansas City Royals: MJ Melendez at odds of +480 (17.2%) via FanDuel. Note that 17 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Melendez and the Royals will take on RHP Griffin Canning (5-2). Canning has allowed 10 home runs this season, three of which have gone to left-handed batters like Melendez. That isn’t a great split, but it’s notable that Canning has allowed six home runs on the road, which is where he’ll have to play tonight.
Melendez himself isn’t the world’s most powerful hitter, but he has five home runs this year and had 18 last year. Three of those five home runs came against right-handed pitchers, and four of them have come in his home ballpark. Like Yoshida, he most recently hit a home run in late May.
But as I say in every column, the on-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the price for this bet at +333 (23.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +410 (19.6%), so we’re getting multiple percentage points point of edge by playing this at FanDuel. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: MJ Melendez +480 at FanDuel
