After last night’s home run column saw both our longshots get scratched, I’m back with action on two guys who will suit up this evening. Tonight, I want action on a Blue Jay to go yard, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Ranger. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Yankees-Blue Jays and Rangers-Mariners. We’re riding with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Rogers Centre this evening.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, Sept. 28
Yankees-Blue Jays Home Run Pick
When: 7:07 p.m. ET
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Isaiah’s Target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at DraftKings
Tonight, the eliminated New York Yankees will take on a Toronto Blue Jays team that must keep winning to secure a Wild Card berth. The Blue Jays are just a half-game up over the Houston Astros and 1.5 games up over the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees will trot out the corpse of RHP Luke Weaver for this one, which bodes well for all of Toronto’s bats, but especially RHH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto’s superstar leads the team with 26 actual and 26.2 expected home runs, 27 of which would’ve cleared the fences at his home park.
Both players’ splits set up favorably for Guerrero. The RHH fares better against same-handed pitching. He has mashed 24 home runs against RHPs with a slash line of .259/.330/.460. Meanwhile, Weaver has fared worse against RHHs, coughing up 15 of his 27 home runs allowed to them with a slash line of .317/.358/.584. Weaver has been generally awful this year, allowing 27 actual and 22.6 expected home runs, 23 of which would’ve counted as dingers in Toronto. His 5.63 xERA (9th percentile), .287 xBA (5th percentile) and 41.7% hard-hit rate (31st percentile) paint an ugly picture.
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Vladdy has gone hitless in his last two outings, but this is a good get-right spot for him. He hasn’t been cold or anything — the superstar is slashing .268/.388/.634 with five home runs over the last 15 days — he just has had a pair of poor showings the last two nights. With playoff positioning on the line, don’t expect the Yanks to shut out the Blue Jays for a third straight night. Pair this home run pick at odds of +425 (19.1%) via DraftKings with one on Guerrero to record multiple bases at odds of +100 (50%).
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +425 at DraftKings
Rangers-Mariners Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
OddsShopper’s Target: Mitch Garver at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in a meaningful Rangers-Mariners contest. The model wants exposure to RHH Mitch Garver, who has hit 19 actual and 18.5 expected home runs this year, 20 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Seattle. The odds of +450 (18.2%) at FanDuel Sportsbook are too good to pass up. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Garver will take on RHP Logan Gilbert, who, while not an easy matchup, is a decent target for home run bettors. Gilbert has coughed up 27 actual and 23.1 expected home runs on the year. His 44.8% hard-hit rate ranks in the lowly 10th percentile. Gilbert has struggled against same-handed batters, allowing them to hit 15 home runs and slash .237/.277/.420. Meanwhile, Garver has thrived against same-handed pitchers, hitting all 19 of his home runs against them while slashing .262/.340/.543.
The model doesn’t care about stats, splits or even the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +340 (22.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +424 (19.1%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +450 (18.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mitch Garver +450 at FanDuel
OddsShopper MLB Tools & Tips
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