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MLB Home Run Picks: Top Two Bets for Monday (Sept. 25)

The MLB rolls on, and despite the NFL doubleheader tonight, bettors can’t forget about the wild world of baseball. Tonight, I want action on a Padre to go yard, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Mariner. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Padres-Giants and Astros-Mariners. We’re trusting Manny Machado in Oracle Park this evening.

Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.

Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, Sept. 25

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Padres-Giants Home Run Pick

When: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Isaiah’s Target: Manny Machado at DraftKings

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants are likely not headed to the playoffs this year, but, like the Fall Out Boy song, the Padres are going down swinging. They’re 9-1 through the last 10 games and have a distant shot at the final Wild Card spot, but they’ll need some help to get there. Still, the Padres are doing everything within their power to make a playoff push, and I expect big things from RHH Manny Machado tonight.

Machado takes on RHP Logan Webb, who has been pretty beatable this year — especially with regard to the long ball. Webb has coughed up 20 actual and 20.9 expected home runs this year. Only 16 would’ve gone over the fences at Oracle Park, but he’ll have to contend with 11.4 mph winds blowing out through left field tonight, which should help Machado and all other RHHs go yard. Webb is elite at home, but he has coughed up 12 home runs to RHHs this year, and they’re slashing .265/.298/.412 against him.

Machado has been instrumental to San Diego’s late-season surge, and, while he is better against LHPs than RHPs, he has been good against Webb. Machado has mashed 30 actual and 28 expected home runs this year, 23 of which have come against RHPs. He is slashing a respectable .238/.299/.449 against them, but, more importantly, he has a home run and is slashing .278/.300/.500 against Webb. With Machado slashing .294/.351/.676 with four home runs over the last 15 days, back him to go yard and record multiple bases tonight at DraftKings.

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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Manny Machado +700 at DraftKings

Astros-Mariners Home Run Pick

When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle

OddsShopper’s Target: J.P. Crawford at FanDuel

It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s Mariners-Astros matchup. This game may not happen tonight — there is an 83.7% chance of precipitation — but if it does, LHH J.P. Crawford is a good bet to go yard. He’ll benefit from 18.3 mph winds blowing out through left field if it does happen. The model wants action on him at odds of +680 (12.8%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!

Crawford draws a matchup with RHP Justin Verlander. Although Verlander is always a tough opposing pitcher to face, he has coughed up seven home runs in September alone. Verlander has coughed up 18 actual and 17.3 expected home runs this year. Despite the tough matchup and unfriendly park, Crawford’s odds have just gotten too long. He has mashed 17 actual and 13.5 expected home runs this year, but 19 of his hits would’ve cleared the fences at T-Mobile Park.

The model doesn’t care about stats, splits or even the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +475 (17.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +616 (13.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!

Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.P. Crawford +680 at FanDuel

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