MLB overnight bets can have a lot of value. Lines are released early in the evening as the market-making bookmakers take money from the sharpest bettors to refine the odds. It’s the perfect opportunity to use OddsShopper’s market-based model to find value on the MLB odds board. There’s usually small edges on game bets that we can pick off by relying on the market to tell us where things are headed. These won’t last long, but here are a few spots that stand out in the early going for MLB overnight bets. Let’s dive into these overnight Astros-Athletics, Royals-Yankees and Blue Jays-Mariners odds and bets.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Astros-Athletics, Royals-Yankees, Blue Jays-Mariners
Astros-Athletics MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via Caesar’s Sportsbook
Astros: -205 | Athletics +170
Astros: -1.5: -125 | Athletics: +1.5: +105
Over 7.5: -120 | Under 7.5: +100
The Oakland Athletics might be the worst team in the league, but to have a run total of 7.5 in 2023’s baseball is pretty low. Cristian Javier has a strong track record over the course of his career, but he has run into some trouble lately. Sure this might be a “get right” spot for the Astros’ starter, but Oakland is still capable of scoring some runs. The Stros shouldn’t have too much trouble putting up a number on Paul Blackburn and the Athletics terrible bullpen either.
The Over 7.5 is going to be bet up to 8 runs at most sportsbooks, but if you can grab this one in a hurry you might take advantage of a bad line. This Astros-Athletics MLB bet on Over 7.5 is priced at -120, but it has true odds of -134 according to the OddsShopper model. It has a 57% win rate, creating a 5% positive expected value. The bet is worth laying around 2% of your bank roll if you’re using Kelly Criterion staking. Check back in the morning or Saturday afternoon to see if the line has moved and evaluate if you beat the closing line.
Best MLB Astros-Athletics Overnight Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (-122) at Caesars
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Royals-Yankees MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Royals: +210 | Yankees: -255
Royals +1.5: +106 | Yankees -1.5: -128
Over 7.5: -115 | Under 7.5: -105
If the A’s are the worst team in baseball, the Kansas City Royals aren’t far behind. The Royals are fighting to stay out of rock bottom and currently have a 28-71 record. They now get the unenviable task of trying to hit off Gerrit Cole when he takes the hill for the Yankees on Saturday. The only positive for Kansas City is they will have their best starting pitcher, Brady Singer, going, but that isn’t saying much.
Despite all the negatively, there is some value to be had on the Royals’ side of this one. They are a huge +210 underdog, but their 1.5 run line (+106) has a bit of edge. This Royals-Yankees bet has a 3% positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model. The bet hits about 52% of the time, so you won’t want to put down a huge portion of your bank roll. You can still grab this +expected value bet before the market adjusts to the sharp linemakers. It’s worth laying 1% of your bankroll using Kelly Criterion staking.
Best MLB Royals-Yankees Overnight Bet: Royals +1.5 (+106) at FanDuel
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Blue Jays-Mariners MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via PointsBet
Blue Jays: -140 | Mariners: +115
Blue Jays -1.5: +140 | Mariners +1.5: -170
Over 7: -1115 | Under 7: -105
Good pitching is hard to find these days. Many predicted that the 2023 MLB season would see increased offense, and those predictions certainly came through. However, there’s still pitching out there and every once in a while two strong starters square off. That’s the case on Saturday when the Toronto Blue Jays continue their series with the Seattle Mariners. Kevin Gausman is on the hill for Toronto while Logan Gilbert takes the bump for Seattle.
It’s no surprise that this game’s run total is opening at seven runs. That makes sense when a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber is going in a pitcher’s ballpark, but the number is still a notch too low for contemporary MLB. You can grab the overnight Under 7 runs (-115) at PointsBet right now for a 2% positive expected value. This Blue Jays-Mariners overnight bet hits about 55% of the time and has true odds of -120. It’s worth staking 2% of your roll using Kelly Criterion stakin.
Best MLB Blue Jays-Mariners Overnight Bet: Over 7 Runs (-115) at PointsBet
