Happy Friday — who’s ready to party, with Up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll provide the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations? The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/26
Joe Ryan O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Minnesota Twins have lost six straight games but will send their ace Joe Ryan to the mound in hopes to end this current losing streak. Ryan leads the Twins in wins and strikeouts in his first full season in the major leagues. Pitching on the Twins is a lot like pitching on the Dodgers: A pitcher’s leash is extremely limited. Despite being the Twins’ best pitcher, Ryan has thrown over 90 pitches times in his 20 total starts. He has topped 90 pitches just once since the start of July. That lack of pitch count brings the under in his strikeout prop in play right away.
Diving into the matchup, the Giants need a very strong end of August and September to make the playoffs. This lineup ranks in the top- 10 in ISO this month, so a rough start to the game could lead to the early showers for Ryan. Stokastic projects five strikeouts in this spot and an xWin rate of 62%, which leads this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Joe Ryan UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Tyler Alexander O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Detroit Tigers southpaw Tyler Alexander has had a losing record in all four of his major league seasons. He holds a 4.03 ERA through nine starts and 19 total appearances. Tonight will be Alexander’s 10th start of the season in a road matchup against the Texas Rangers. At this point, the Tigers are coasting through the league, with no shot of making the playoffs.
In his 19 appearances, Alexander has only topped four or more strikeouts twice — in the first game of the season and four starts ago against the Twins. He is 3-7 this season with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The worst part about Alexander’s game is his lack of strikeouts. With a career-low 11.9% strikeout rate this season, no batter fears going down on strikes. The Rangers are implied for a respectable 4.5 runs in this matchup, and they rank middle of the pack in strikeout rate for August. Stokastic projects Alexander for only 3.2 strikeouts in this spot, providing some juice on the under.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Alexander UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The fall of the Minnesota Twins has led to the rise of the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central division, as they now lead by four games. Shane Bieber will take the mound for the Guardians as they look to even up their series against the Seattle Mariners tonight. Once a bona fide superstar, Bieber seems to have fallen off a little bit this season. He still leads the team in ERA and strikeouts, but Bieber has a 24.7% strikeout rate, which is the lowest he has recorded since his rookie season. Not only that, but Bieber has a career-low fastball velocity average of 91.2 mph.
Getting to seven strikeouts in one game seems to not be as easy as it once was for Bieber. This matchup against the Mariners causes some concern, as they have the 19th highest strikeout rate this month. After not reaching seven strikeouts in back-to-back starts, Stokastic projects Bieber for only 6.1 strikeouts tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Shane Bieber UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Gerrit Cole O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Are the New York Yankees finally getting back to their winning ways? They have won four straight games and are a -250 favorite in this road matchup against the Oakland Athletics. A big reason why is Gerrit Cole, who leads not only the team in strikeouts but ranks third among all starters in the league in K/9. Even with those impressive numbers, Cole is 0-4 in his last six starts and hasn’t won a game in over a month. During that time, Cole is averaging exactly seven strikeouts per game. Oddly enough, Stokastic projects Cole to get exactly seven strikeouts in this matchup.
Even though the Athletics have the worst record in the American League, they are a pesky bunch. For the month of August, they rank 22nd in strikeout rate despite being tied for the third lowest when it comes to runs scored in the league. Cole is a great pitcher, but this a tough strikeout matchup, especially given how poorly he has pitched recently.
Best MLB Pick Today: Gerrit Cole UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Spencer Strider O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This is Spencer Strider’s first full season in the major leagues, and he has performed very well. Through 26 total appearances and 15 starts, Strider has a 7-4 record and a 2.95 while allowing a very low 0.54 HR/9. Probably the best stat for Strider is his 35.7% strikeout rate. Despite those incredible numbers, Strider may be slowing down, as he has failed to capture seven strikeouts or more in four of his last six games. To make matters worse, the St. Louis Cardinals are on an absolute tear right now. This month the Cardinals lead the league in ISO, wOBA, runs, home runs and rank 28th in strikeout rate. It is the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Strider. Stokastic projects Strider for 6.2 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 57%. To round out this parlay, the xWin rate is 8% and the xROI is over 100%. This is a true go-big-or-go-home parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Spencer Strider UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
