Thursday presents another split slate in the MLB, but this article will provide four strikeout prop bets for the main slate. The 10x parlay features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists. These parlays are built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/25
Jacob deGrom O/U 9.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Jacob deGrom has a very hefty 9.5 strikeout prop line in his matchup against the Colorado Rockies. It is difficult to project how many pitches deGrom will throw tonight given that this is only his fifth start of the season since returning from injury. He threw 95 in his last start, but that surprised many when he averaged 70.3 pitches per game in his three prior starts.
Despite the season-high 95 pitches last game, deGrom was still only able to strike out nine batters in 6.2 innings as he also recorded his first loss. DeGrom and the Mets are a ridiculously high -450 favorite, so it is tough to see him going that deep into this game when the Rockies are only implied for 2.3 runs. Getting through this Rockies lineup should be a breeze, but it’s hard to justify deGrom getting to double-digit strikeouts on an expected pitch limit. Stokastic projects deGrom for eight strikeouts and an xWin rate of 69% on the under, which is the biggest favorite in this 10x parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jacob deGrom UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Jordan Lyles O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first season with the Orioles, Jordan Lyles is their ace on the mound. He leads the team in wins, ERA, strikeouts and innings this season. Lyles has a strikeout rate of 19.4%, which isn’t all that great, but seeing this prop line set at 3.5 strikeouts is far too low. A home matchup against the Chicago White Sox awaits Lyles tonight, and Stokastic projects him for 4.6 strikeouts, which is well over this strikeout prop line.
The White Sox during the month of August have the second-worst ISO in the league. They are favored in this spot, but that doesn’t mean Lyles can’t have a very strong start tonight. In 11 of his last 13 starts and in 18 of his 25 season starts, Lyles has gone over 3.5 strikeouts. He is averaging 6.4 strikeouts per start. This is a great spot for Lyles to continue his career-best season with the Orioles.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jordan Lyles OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Justin Dunn O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Tonight will be Justin Dunn‘s fourth start this season in his first year with the Cincinnati Reds. The pitch count is slowly rising for Dunn, but his production is lacking severely. Dunn can’t keep the ball in the yard. He is allowing a career-worst 3.38 HR/9 and a 6.08 ERA. That is five home runs through three starts and only 13.1 innings.
Strikeouts have also been hard to come by, as Dunn has a career-low 16.4% strikeout rate. Not only has Dunn struggled to in his starts, but now he draws a road matchup against the heavy-hitting Phillies lineup that is implied for 5.7 runs tonight. It ranks top five in home runs, ISO and wOBA during the month of August. This is a brutal spot for Dunn, and Stokastic projects him for only 3.8 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 66% on this under strikeout prop.
Best MLB Pick Today: Justin Dunn UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Luis Garcia O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Houston Astros continue to roll right now as they look for the series sweep against the Minnesota Twins. They are currently in first place in the American League and are a -180 favorite tonight, with the Twins projected for 3.8 runs.
In his third season in the major leagues, Luis Garcia has a very respectable 25% strikeout rate. In his last start against the Twins, Garcia had an impressive nine strikeouts while allowing no earned runs through five innings. As a matter of fact, he has struck out six or more in 13 of his 22 starts this season. The Twins are plummeting quickly, and now is a perfect time for Garcia to take advantage. Stokastic projects Garcia for six strikeouts in this matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Luis Garcia OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
