Strong offensive line play has anchored the Dallas Cowboys for the better part of the last decade. The Cowboys have boasted a top-five unit in all but two years since 2013. The two exceptions, 2020 and 2018, saw injuries hold them back. Still, the Cowboys finished a solid 14th in 2018. But the new injury to star left tackle Tyron Smith, which is likely to hold him out until at least December, could sink an otherwise seaworthy group. The Cowboys are quickly becoming a team to fade in the 2022 NFL futures betting markets.
#Cowboys standout LT Tyron Smith actually suffered an avulsion fracture of the knee, meaning the hamstring tendon that sits at the back of the knee pulled off the bone and he needs surgery, sources say. If he’s back at all, it’ll be December. A tough loss.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 25, 2022
The Cowboys were already entering 2022 without right tackle La’el Collins, who left for the Cincinnati Bengals in the offseason. Left guard Connor Williams left for the Miami Dolphins too. That leaves only guard Zack Martin, center Tyler Biadasz and swing tackle Terence Steele from last year’s unit. Given the lack of depth, Smith’s injury means that developmental tackle and first-round pick Tyler Smith may have to play a role for which he isn’t prepared.
2022 NFL Betting Odds: Dallas Cowboys Futures Picks
2022 NFL Dallas Cowboys Futures Betting Odds
Shorting the 2022 Dallas Cowboys: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The Cowboys opened the season at -120 to win the NFC East. They've since ticked all the way down to +145 in some places due to a combination of factors. The Philadelphia Eagles made some aggressive moves in the offseason and improved their roster. Bettors then wagered a lot on Philadelphia, with the Eagles accounting for 67.6% of the handle for divisional odds at BetMGM. Furthermore, the Cowboys failed to retain key parts of their 2021 roster, including Williams, Collins, Amari Cooper and Randy Gregory.
Dallas lost a lot of the depth that helped the team go 12-5 last season. With games against all three NFC division winners, the Cowboys have a tougher schedule on tap than the second-place Eagles. The 2022 season is increasingly looking like a transition year for Dallas, so betting against them on the NFL divisional betting markets looks profitable.
Best NFC East Pick: Eagles to Win the NFC East | +160 at DraftKings
Shorting the 2022 Dallas Cowboys: NFL Win Totals
Most books have posted Dallas' win total at 10.5. The Cowboys will open the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals, respectively. After two soft divisional matchups, the Cowboys will then play road games against the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas also has a road game against the Green Bay Packers on its schedule.
Opposing defensive lines will cause problems for Dallas. The Cowboys have six games against defensive lines that ranked top 12 in adjusted line yards. They also have six games against lines that ranked top 12 in adjusted sack rate. While not top 12 in either metric, the Philadelphia Eagles can trust rookie Jordan Davis to help their unit move up the rankings. The odds aren't super profitable, but the Cowboys have less than a 60% chance of getting to 11 wins without Smith and Williams anchoring their offensive line.
Dallas Cowboys NFL Win Total Prediction: Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins | -145 at FanDuel
Shorting the 2022 Dallas Cowboys: NFL Prop Markets
Losing Smith for a sizeable part of the year -- and Williams entirely -- will hurt Dallas' rushing attack. Smith earned the second-highest run-blocking grade among tackles last season. Williams, who left in free agency, ranked 10th as a run-blocker among guards. The two helped Ezekiel Elliott rack up 1,002 yards rushing last year on 237 attempts, good for 4.2 yards per carry.
However, Elliott fared much worse without Smith last year. Across the seven games in which Smith sat out or played fewer than half the snaps, Elliott totaled just 350 yards on 92 attempts, good for 3.8 yards per carry. Remove the nearly meaningless Week 18 game Dallas played against Philadelphia from that sample, and Elliott's average drops to drops 3.55 yards per carry.
Elliott's totals vary wildly across the market. He is at 800.5 at FanDuel but at 874.5 at BetMGM. Neither book shows a bias to either the over or the under, with the juice set at the book's standard -112 or -115, respectively. Slam the under 874.5 at BetMGM before the book takes it off the board.
