With the NFL season just weeks away, sharp bettors have taken considerable value off the board at most sportsbooks. The 2022-23 NFL divisional betting markets are no exception. That said, a peek into how the money has been distributed across the board at BetMGM can provide some insight into the handful of places where value remains.
2022-23 NFL Divisional Betting Odds: Line Movement, Public & Sharp Money
AFC East: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The Buffalo Bills opened as -185 favorites to win the AFC East, but sharp money has moved the line to -225. Although only 38.1% of the bets have been placed on Josh Allen‘s squad, the Bills own 62.9% of the handle. Bettors targeting other teams have mainly gone for the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins opened at +550 but have moved to +475 after drawing 27% of tickets and only 15.3% of the handle. Unfortunately for New England, the Patriots opened at +320 but have fallen to +475 after drawing only 11.4% of the bets and 5.2% of the cash.
AFC North: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
No division has been more in flux than the AFC North this offseason. The Cleveland Browns‘ trade for Deshaun Watson—and his subsequent suspension—made the division difficult to handicap. The Baltimore Ravens opened as +175 favorites, but their odds have dropped to +145 after drawing 30% of bets and 38% of cash. Likewise, the Cincinnati Bengals opened at +200, but their odds have dropped to +175 because they attracted 32.6% of the bets and 33% of the cash. The money suggests Baltimore is the sharper play, but it’s close. Only 5.3% of the tickets and 3.6% of the handle came in on Cleveland.
AFC South: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The Indianapolis Colts control a larger share of their division’s handle than any other team. After opening at +140, BetMGM has moved the line down to -140 because 85.8% of the cash has come in on Matt Ryan‘s new team on just 59.2% of the tickets. The Tennessee Titans have drawn 25.5% of the tickets but only 10.1% of the handle, which led to their odds moving from +100 to +180. The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ odds fell from +800 to +850 with only 3.6% of the cash coming in on the team. Still, no team has performed worse in the NFL divisional betting markets than the Houston Texans. Davis Mills and company have attracted only 3.9% of the bets and only 0.6% of the cash.
AFC West: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The AFC West will look very different in 2022-23. Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Chandler Jones and Khalil Mack will enter the division. However, Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu are gone. The Kansas City Chiefs opened at -140 but have moved to +160 after drawing only 10.8% of the tickets and 10.5% of the cash. Yet they remain the favorites despite their poor numbers. In contrast, the Los Angeles Chargers have drawn 35.4% of the handle on just 30.8% of the tickets but have only seen their odds move from +375 to +250. The Denver Broncos have drawn 29.7% of the handle but on 31.4% of the tickets, leading to a move from +400 to +260. Even the Las Vegas Raiders have seen movement in their favor, with the number moving from +800 to +650. Las Vegas has attracted 24.5% of the money on 26.9% of the tickets.
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NFC East: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The Philadelphia Eagles landed A.J. Brown in the offseason, and bettors have flocked to them en masse. After opening at +300, Philadelphia earned 67.6% of the money on 58.8% of the tickets, leading BetMGM to drop the number to +160. The Eagles have attracted the most tickets and the second-most money among all NFL divisional betting markets. The Dallas Cowboys remain the favorites, but their opening number of -120 has dropped to +140. Only 9.1% of the cash and 12.9% of the tickets have come in on Dallas. Both the New York Giants‘ and Washington Commanders‘ odds have lengthened by +50, too.
NFC North: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The public is in love with the Detroit Lions. They have attracted the second-most tickets across all NFL divisional betting markets. A whopping 55.8% of all bets to win the NFC North have come in on Detroit, although only 48.5% of the cash is backing those up. Perhaps that’s why Detroit’s opening number of +800 has only lengthened to +850. In contrast, the Minnesota Vikings‘ odds have moved move from +300 to +250 after the team drew 28.1% of the tickets backed by 31.7% of the cash. The Green Bay Packers opened at -155, which is exactly where they remain.
NFC South: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
Tom Brady‘s retirement—and subsequent unretirement—swung this market significantly. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened at +140 but currently sit at -275. They have drawn the third-most money and 52.6% of the cash on just 17.9% of the tickets. The New Orleans Saints control 60.9% of the tickets but on only 42.4% of the cash, and their line lengthened to +325 from the opening number of +220. The Atlanta Falcons are the second-worst team on the NFL divisional betting markets. They have earned just 5.1% of the tickets on only 1.4% of the cash, and their line has fallen from +500 to +3000.
NFC West: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
With Russell Wilson gone, the NFC West has become a three-horse race. The Los Angeles Rams have earned 57.8% of the tickets but an impressive 77.9% of the cash, the second-highest handle percentage among all NFC divisional betting markets. In a corresponding move, BetMGM has dropped the line from +150 to +125. The San Francisco 49ers have attracted 20.5% of the tickets but only 13.% of the cash, and their line has moved from +230 to +175. The Arizona Cardinals‘ odds have actually gotten worse through the offseason, perhaps in part due to DeAndre Hopkins‘ suspension. Their number fell from +320 to +350 after the team attracted just 16.3% of the tickets backed by only 6.6% of the handle.
