The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today. Let’s begin the week with the best MLB Prop Party Parlay for Monday, Aug. 22.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/22
Jose Miranda O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Minnesota Twins rookie Jose Miranda is projected to bat cleanup as they go for the series split against the Texas Rangers tonight. Miranda has a respectable .189 ISO and a .350 wOBA, but he only has 13 home runs in 305 plate appearances. He will get the platoon advantage against left-hander Cole Ragans in this rookie battle. This will be Ragans’ fourth major league start in his career, and the Twins are -220 favorites implied to score 5.2 runs, which is the third highest on the slate. Picking this under home run prop will provide Stokastic’s fifth player prop and the biggest favorite in this parlay. Leaving this out is fine, but using this prop in the parlay gets it to an expected ROI over 100%. Miranda certainly has the advantage in this matchup, but with that said, it is still extremely unlikely that he hits a home run tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Miranda UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-450)
Julio Urias O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his seventh season with the Dodgers, Julio Urias has a career-best 2.40 ERA and a 13-6 record as the Dodgers continue to roll through the league with the best record. Urias also leads the team in strikeouts with 123, but getting to eight strikeouts in this matchup against the Brewers is a very tall task. Despite having one of his best seasons, Urias has only struck out eight or more in 5 of his 23 starts this season. The Brewers will also get the advantage after seeing Urias in his most recent start just seven days ago. Urias was able to pitch five scoreless innings, winning his sixth straight game, but in doing so he was only able to strike out six Brewers batters. Stokastic projects Urias for a similar outcome tonight with 5.9 strikeouts, giving this under strikeout prop a 74% xWin rate and making it the second-largest favorite in this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Julio Urias UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Tucker Davidson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Tonight will be Tucker Davidson‘s sixth start this season and his third since being acquired by the Los Angeles Angels. Through five starts and six total appearances, Davidson has a ridiculously high 6.75 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. Generating strikeouts has also been difficult for Davidson, as he has an 11.7% strikeout rate and has gone under this 3.5 strikeout line in every appearance this season. This under prop has a 100% hit rate so far, and Stokastic projects an xWin rate of 68% in this matchup against the Rays, with a projection of 2.8 strikeouts. The Rays have won seven of their last nine games while being implied for 4.3 runs against Davidson. They do have the sixth-highest strikeout rate this season, but Davidson is nowhere near a strikeout pitcher. Davidson will have his work cut out for him in this spot against the Rays.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tucker Davidson UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Edward Cabrera O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Miami Marlins may have found something with their young right-hander Edward Cabrera. Over his last three starts, Cabrera has allowed zero earned runs and six hits while striking out 21 in 14.2 innings. This will be his seventh start in the major leagues this season, as he once again climbed through the minor leagues to get to this point, just like he did in 2021.
Cabrera has a 28.8% strikeout rate though six games, but facing the Athletics may not be a breeze like it was previously. They have won four of their last six games, and through the month of August, the Athletics rank 19th in team strikeout rate. The Athletics have a lot of pesky batters, which could make life difficult for Cabrera tonight. Stokastic projects Cabrera for 5.2 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 59%, which is just below this prop line.
Best MLB Pick Today: Edward Cabrera UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Drew Smyly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Drew Smyly has played for so many teams through his career. He is a soft-throwing left-hander who is averaging a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate this season. The juice on this under 4.5 strikeout prop doesn’t make much sense. Smyly has struck out four or fewer in 12 of his 16 starts, and the Cardinals in the month of August have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league. They have won seven straight and 16 of their last 19 games. The Cardinals also destroy southpaws, leading the league in wOBA, ranking third in ISO and fourth in strikeout rate. This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Smyly.
Best MLB Pick Today: Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
