This is the last leg of the FedEx playoffs as East Lake will put a beautiful bow on this year’s PGA season. The Tour Championship isn’t kind to long shots and major upsets, at least not by format alone. Scottie Scheffler will take the first tee already with a -10 on his scorecard, followed by Patrick Cantlay at -8, Will Zalatoris at -7 and so on, back to the final five golfers starting at even par. Don’t be fooled — finding value on this board is far from impossible. Below we’re looking at the best 2022 Tour Championship longshot golf bets for the week and trying to be the ones posting the HUGE PAYOUT screenshots on Twitter.
2022 Tour Championship Longshot Golf Bets
Outright Winner Longshot Bet | RISK FREE Bet at BetMGM
Since changing the format in 2019 to giving top players the added shot advantage, only one of the three winners did not start at the top. Rory McIlroy had to overcome a six-stroke deficit to eventually shoot 13-under over four days. It can be done. Six strokes off the leader to start is a probably going to be the limit for most bettors, especially if they do go back to McIlroy as an outright. Getting anyone north of 20-1 that still has a realistic opportunity to close the gap feels like the best chance for a long shot. That would be Sam Burns.
Last week’s Putting for Dough highlighted the value on Burns to win the BMW Championship — north of 20-1, along with Colin Morikawa. Now heading into the final week of action, Burns sits just five strokes off the lead with, arguably, the quietest season among any of the top eight golfers in this field. Burns has three wins on tour and finished 19th at the BMW and 20th the previous week at St. Jude in Memphis. He’s sticking with the top talent as things get tighter while playing good enough golf to make an aggressive push on Friday or Saturday.
He also doesn’t have anywhere near an insurmountable lead to overcome. Scheffler is beatable, at times by himself. Zalatoris has newfound success that could easily be undone by his putter. Even Xander Schauffele has had moments of weakness to provide a small opening. Cantlay might not be human, but that’s why Burns is north of 20-1.
Best Longshot Outright Winner: Sam Burns (+2200, BetMGM)
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Outright Honorable Mention | RISK FREE Bet at BetMGM
Just one stroke behind Burns sits a group of five golfers at 4 under, including Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau. As expected, since McIlroy has done this before, the value is zapped on taking him outright. The same is true with Finau given the amazing stretch of winning golf to end the season. The one name that does pop, both off the page and with value, is Sungjae Im. He is similar to Finau in how he ended the season on a positive stretch, especially after dreadful performances at both the Scottish and Open Championships. Since then, Im has made four straight top-15s and is prime to do one of two things, helping his case as a 30-1 long shot.
Im has the potential to outlast a lot of his competitors, playing balanced golf and avoiding mistakes. Like everyone, the variance comes with the flat stick, where he’s 36th overall in strokes gained putting. It’s getting to the green where Im shines and can truly separate himself from the pack — allowing for that second possible outcome of making a big run on Thursday. Im is ninth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, eighth in strokes gained around the green and 11th in strokes gained tee to green. That helps make up one of the more complete players on tour, sitting ninth in total strokes gained. Don’t count out Im to make a flash or simply grind down those above him.
Longshot Outright Winner Bet: Sungjae Im (+3000 BetMGM)
