After hitting four of Stokastic’s five props in the 10x parlay last night, it’s time to test Stokastic’s luck with the Prop Party parlay for this Friday main slate. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/19
Graham Ashcraft O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Reds rookie right-hander Graham Ashcraft has a record of 5-3 through his 15 starts this season. Despite the Reds’ pitiful 46-70 record, Ashcraft is the only starting pitcher on the team who is above .500. Even with that and a decent 1.32 WHIP, Ashcraft relies on soft contact rather than generating strikeouts. His extremely low 14.9% strikeout rate has led to Ashcraft only reaching five or more strikeouts in 4 of his 15 starts.
Ashcraft has yet to face the Pirates, but even though they have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league, it is hard to justify Ashcraft reaching five strikeouts when his game plan is pitching to soft contact. Stokastic projects Ashcraft for 3.5 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 72%, which is the highest in this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Graham Ashcraft UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Matt Manning O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Stokastic projects Matt Manning for 3.6 strikeouts tonight, which is a little more than Ashcraft, but it still has a very high xWin rate of 69% in his matchup against the Angels. This will only be Manning’s sixth major league start this season after being called up from Triple-A. In his previous five starts, Manning has averaged 3.4 strikeouts per game. He has a ridiculously low 16.2% strikeout rate, which is only a little better than his rate last season in the major leagues (14.8% through 18 starts). This is basically a copy-and-paste situation from the strikeout prop above. It is a great matchup against the Angels, who strike out the most in the league, but the starting pitcher has a difficult time producing whiffs.
Best MLB Pick Today: Matt Manning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Kyle Wright O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Kyle Wright has posted a career-best 23.4% strikeout rate this season and leads the Braves — who have won 9 of their last 10 — in wins with 14. He has lost only two games in the months of June, July and August. Wright has also gone over this strikeout prop in four of his last six games, and in his two misses he recorded four strikeouts.
This over strikeout prop is the best bet in this parlay, as Stokastic projects Wright for an xWin rate of 65% on a bet that is coming in at even money. Wright has struck out five or more in 15 of his 22 starts, which is good for an actual win rate of 68.2% on this over. This is the best season that he has had, so even with a tough Astros team coming to town, this line is way too low for Wright’s strikeout ability.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Wright OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Brady Singer O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his third season with the Royals, Brady Singer has a winning record for the first time (6-4). Singer also has a career-best 25.5% strikeout rate, and he leads the team in strikeouts with 107 this season. Despite getting so many swings and misses, Singer has only reached seven or more strikeouts in 6 of his 16 starts. With a line at 6.5 strikeouts, Singer will have to be nearly perfect to reach the over in his matchup against the Rays. Over the last six games, the Rays have won five while averaging 5.5 runs per game. This offense seems to be clicking, and they are firmly in the AL Wild Card playoff hunt. It is a tough matchup for Singer, especially when the Royals have all but mailed in their season. Stokastic projects 5.9 strikeouts for Singer in this spot, lending credence to yet another under strikeout prop in this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Brady Singer UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Martin Perez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
What a year it has been for veteran Martin Perez, who is back with the Rangers after spending the last three seasons with the Twins and Red Sox. Perez has recorded a 9-3 record, a career-best 2.79 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Not only that, but he also has a career-high 21.2% strikeout rate, which is the first time in his 11-year career he has had a rate over 20%. The Rangers are still 12 games below .500, but Perez has been a major bright spot, leading the team in wins, ERA, strikeouts and innings.
He will take on one of his former teams in the Twins tonight, who just swept the Royals. In his lone start against the Twins this season, Perez allowed six earned runs but still was able to get to five strikeouts. In fact, Perez has reached at least five strikeouts in six of his last seven games and in 17 of his 23 starts this season. Stokastic projects Perez for 5.1 strikeouts tonight, which is crazy given this over prop has a value of +120.
Best MLB Pick Today: Martin Perez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
