After another 2-1 night, it’s time to target the best numbers on the board. Friday presents an interesting opportunity to scour the slate for the best value as new series begin. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Friday, Aug. 19.
Best NRFI Picks Today: Yes/No Run First Inning Bets 8/19
Angels at Tigers Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
This column routinely picks on Detroit, but only when they travel. Things are a little different for the lowly Tigers back in Detroit compared to road games, where they barely register in the first inning. The Tigers go from 0.20 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road to 0.44 at home. It’s significant enough to warrant strong consideration tonight, especially with a strong number at BetMGM.
Patrick Sandoval might be the culprit with his 1.49 WHIP — all but ensuring a scoring chance for Detroit early in this game. With a decent strikeout rate just south of 24%, it’s a high walk rate of 11% that’s been Sandoval’s undoing and will allow a chance for the Tigers. Matt Manning doesn’t have a long resume this year but has too low of a strikeout rate in limited time to escape any jams. The top part of the Angels lineup won’t be easy for him either.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Angels at Tigers YRFI (+120 BetMGM)
Royals at Rays Pick | Kansas Residents: $100 in Free Bets On Signup
The Royals travel to Tampa, but it’s less about where the Royals play rather than them just being away from Kansas City. It’s been a struggle for them to keep opponents scoreless in the first inning, giving up 0.72 RPFI on the road, fifth worst in all of baseball. That’s a rough combination for the Royals when adding in the Rays notching 0.63 RPFI at home. The Royals would need some serious pitching tonight to outduel not just the Rays bats, but the poor season-long trend that follows Kansas City on the road. Brady Singer is actually good enough to do this, but the opposing Shane McClanahan is going to keep things super tight for the Royals. This number should move, as it’s still too high at +135, so take advantage of that more than anything else.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Royals at Rays YRFI (+135 BetMGM)
White Sox at Guardians Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
In most cases with pitching matchups that feature average-at-best arms, targeting an opposing WHIP is a key metric in determining any YRFI play. With this game, it’s less that specific number — at least for one guy — and more recent trends for these teams at the plate. Triston McKenzie gets another start for the Guardians, with a decent variance over his last five starts. Even in his last start, where he only surrendered tw0 runs, they came off home runs. The WHIP is low for McKenzie, but he’s still giving up some hits.
Then there’s Lance Lynn of the White Sox. He’s worked the WHIP down to 1.25 following a low-scoring effort from the Tigers, but the body of work for Lynn this season isn’t great. Chicago gives up 0.53 RPFI on the road, and the Guardians allow 0.43 RPFI at home; these numbers are aided by weaker pitching.
Best NRFI Bet Today: White Sox at Guardians YRFI (+120 BetMGM)
