It’s Day 3 for most teams in this young MLB season, which means plenty of action to target. We’ve hit the ground running so far and look to continue finding value early in the baseball season. Here are our top plays for Sunday, March 31 — we’re placing wagers on one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model.
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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, March 31
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Tyler Wells
Outside of the legendary Mike Trout, the Los Angeles Angels offense has looked relatively hapless through two games. Granted, those two games came against elite-level pitching with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez each putting on a clinic, but this lineup is definitely one of the weakest in the American League.
In two games against the Baltimore Orioles, the Angels have struck out 27 times – that’s half of their outs recorded. The swing-and-miss potential only gets worse when we see that Sunday’s game is a getaway day for the Angels, who travel to South Florida to begin a series with the Miami Marlins on Monday.
Tyler Wells may not be a mainstream name like Rodriguez or Burnes, but he can still miss bats. Beginning the 2023 season in the starting rotation, Wells posted at least six strikeouts in 10 of his first 16 starts. With a called-strikes-plus-whiffs (CSW%) of 29.2% and a 24.9% strikeout percentage a year ago, Wells ranked among the top 60 in the MLB in both categories. He rung up seven strikeouts in his only start against the Angels last season as well.
It’s been tough sledding for the Angels in the opening weekend of the season, and it doesn’t project to change much come Sunday afternoon. We’ll continue to fade this lineup and pound the over for Wells’ strikeouts.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tyler Wells Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134 on FanDuel)
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Daulton Varsho
Let’s take a look at what our MLB betting model has in store for the top MLB player prop. The OddsShopper tool points us to Tropicana Field where Daulton Varsho and the Toronto Blue Jays will finish up their series with the host Tampa Bay Rays.
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With just two hits in 12 plate appearances this season, Varsho has yet to really impress from the plate. He managed just a single in each of his past two games, and our OddsShopper Premium tools expect him to struggle from the plate again.
Right-handed pitcher Shawn Armstrong is listed as the expected starter for the Rays, but it’s likely that he will serve as an opener. Lefty Tyler Alexander projects as the long reliever in this matchup, putting Varsho at a platoon disadvantage.
Though Varsho was solid against left-handed pitching last year, he’s shown potential to bottom out against same-side pitchers, batting just .202 against lefties in 2022. The Tampa Bay defense is one of the better units in the game, so that contributes to our projection here as well.
Varsho’s under 0.5 hits prop is available on BetRivers at +145, 30 cents better than any other bookmaker on the market. It also sits 17 cents better than our projected true odds of +128.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 Hits (+145 on BetRivers)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Seth Brown
It’s not every day that we look towards Oakland for a home run prop, especially when the Athletics are playing at home. However, on Sunday afternoon the Oakland Athletics will square off against Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Guardians in the series finale. In his age-37 season, Carrasco is well past his prime and served up the long ball at one of the highest clips in the league last season. His 19.8% home run to fly ball ratio ranked seventh in the MLB among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings a season ago, and he finished the season with an ugly 1.80 HR/9.
Seth Brown should bat in the middle of the Oakland lineup, which suddenly doesn’t look half bad after the addition of J.D. Davis. Brown hit 39 home runs in 2022 and 2023 combined, with 36 of them coming off of right-handed pitching. With a career .233 ISO and .470 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, he has plenty of power to take advantage of Carrasco’s issues with the long ball.
The OddsShopper Premium tools list Brown’s best price as +525 on BetMGM, meanwhile other books have posted the prop as low as +420. OddsShopper Premium tools make it easy to shop around the entire industry and get the best price on all your wagers.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Seth Brown to Hit a Home Run (+525 on BetMGM)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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