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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Friday, April 19 (2024)

Yesterday’s disgusting slate of sports gave us a single MLB game in the evening, and our article went 1-1-1, cashing our under for Corbin Carroll but losing a home run pick for Miguel Sano. This evening, I’m getting exposure to a few MLB player prop bets on a far better slate of baseball, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model — which you can now get for just $1, keep reading to find out how!

Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.

MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, April 19

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MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Ronald Acuna Jr.

Let’s begin with my absolute favorite MLB player prop pick today: Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 total bases. We’re getting it for the friendly price of -115 at FanDuel, which is one of the best numbers you’ll see for this bet all season. While Acuna has gotten off to a shaky start, slashing only .294/.400/.397, he should regress steadily toward the .337/.416/.596 he recorded last season.

Acuna and the Braves draw a matchup with the Texas Rangers and LHP Andrew Heaney. Southpaws have held Acuna to a slash line of only .263/.333/.263 this season, but he went .315/.405/.559 against them last year. Heaney’s bloated 6.75 ERA, while inflated relative to his 3.72 xERA, is largely a product of his low 90.8 mph fastball velocity (9th percentile).

This year, Heaney has thrown that four-seam fastball 59% of the time and his slider 19.5% of the time. Those were Acuna’s two best pitchers to face last year — he recorded a .644 xSLG versus the former and .706 xSLG versus the latter. He has struggled against those pitches this year, posting .299 and .469, respectively, but he should bounce back soon.

Importantly, Acuna finally got the monkey off his back by going yard for the first time all season on Wednesday. Big hits can come in bunches, and Acuna is now slashing .400/.483/.600 over the last seven days. Let’s trust him to stay hot in a beatable matchup.

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Ronald Acuna Jr. total bases live odds page!


MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Garrett Crochet

The Chicago White Sox will visit the Philadelphia Phillies as LHP Garrett Crochet looks to continue his hot start to the year. The MLB weather report calls for cloudy skies with no chance of precipitation, so unlike yesterday’s Cubs game, we can count on getting this one in tonight. Our MLB betting model’s top bet for this game is for Crochet to stay under 6.5 strikeouts, which he has done in only one of his four starts, but his 35.2% strikeout rate is beating his career 28.7% by so much that regression looms. We’re also getting him at friendly (and off-market) odds to stay under 6.5 strikeouts:

As you see, Crochet clocks in at +104 at FanDuel to stay under 6.5 total strikeouts. Only two other books, BetMGM and Hard Rock, have this at plus money. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at -126.

The model indexes the odds across the sports betting market to generate a breakeven price (called “true odds“). When the number available on any book exceeds the true odds, we know we’re getting positive expected value (+EV).

Bets like this one, when wagered over a large sample, can transform your bankroll dramatically — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.

For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “PLAYOFFS” to get your first week for $1 (the regular price is $14.95)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.

MLB Betting Model Pick: Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts +104 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Garrett Crochet total bases live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna

There are a ton of home run picks trading with positive expected value (+EV) in the model today, including several for the Miami Marlins, but we’re riding with the Marcell Ozuna wagon again tonight. I already laid out why I’m skeptical of LHP Andrew Heaney, and with the Rangers coming off a lengthy bullpen game against the Detroit Tigers yesterday, he could also crack some relievers.

But all those projection-based reasons to back Ozuna aren’t factored into the model, which is market-based. Ozuna is trading with +EV because FanDuel is hanging a +320 for him to go yard while every other book is taking action on this bet at odds of +260 or shorter. Pinnacle even has this bet priced at +258.

It’s worth saying that even if Ozuna doesn’t go yard for the ninth time this season tonight (which would put him in sole possession of the most home runs hit this season), getting a bet like this at this price should yield meaningful returns over the long term — you only have to get enough exposure to a wide sample of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna Home Run +320 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Marcell Ozuna home run live odds page!

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