MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Friday, April 19 (2024)

Acuna and the Braves draw a matchup with the Texas Rangers and LHP Andrew Heaney. Southpaws have held Acuna to a slash line of only .263/.333/.263 this season, but he went .315/.405/.559 against them last year. Heaney’s bloated 6.75 ERA, while inflated relative to his 3.72 xERA, is largely a product of his low 90.8 mph fastball velocity (9th percentile).

This year, Heaney has thrown that four-seam fastball 59% of the time and his slider 19.5% of the time. Those were Acuna’s two best pitchers to face last year — he recorded a .644 xSLG versus the former and .706 xSLG versus the latter. He has struggled against those pitches this year, posting .299 and .469, respectively, but he should bounce back soon.

Importantly, Acuna finally got the monkey off his back by going yard for the first time all season on Wednesday. Big hits can come in bunches, and Acuna is now slashing .400/.483/.600 over the last seven days. Let’s trust him to stay hot in a beatable matchup.

As you see, Crochet clocks in at +104 at FanDuel to stay under 6.5 total strikeouts. Only two other books, BetMGM and Hard Rock, have this at plus money. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at -126.

The model indexes the odds across the sports betting market to generate a breakeven price (called “true odds“). When the number available on any book exceeds the true odds, we know we’re getting positive expected value (+EV).

Bets like this one, when wagered over a large sample, can transform your bankroll dramatically — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.

For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “PLAYOFFS” to get your first week for $1 (the regular price is $14.95)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.

There are a ton of home run picks trading with positive expected value (+EV) in the model today, including several for the Miami Marlins, but we’re riding with the Marcell Ozuna wagon again tonight. I already laid out why I’m skeptical of LHP Andrew Heaney, and with the Rangers coming off a lengthy bullpen game against the Detroit Tigers yesterday, he could also crack some relievers.

But all those projection-based reasons to back Ozuna aren’t factored into the model, which is market-based. Ozuna is trading with +EV because FanDuel is hanging a +320 for him to go yard while every other book is taking action on this bet at odds of +260 or shorter. Pinnacle even has this bet priced at +258.

It’s worth saying that even if Ozuna doesn’t go yard for the ninth time this season tonight (which would put him in sole possession of the most home runs hit this season), getting a bet like this at this price should yield meaningful returns over the long term — you only have to get enough exposure to a wide sample of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.