As the MLB prepares to enter its second week of consistent action, some early-season questions are being raised, like “are the Houston Astros that bad?” and “are the Pittsburgh Pirates that good?” We have a full 162-game season for those questions to get answered. Let’s dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Wednesday’s card — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, April 3
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Cavan Biggio
Let’s kick off the MLB player props column with a utility man instead of a big-name player. We’re turning to Toronto Blue Jays LHH Cavan Biggio for his road matchup with the Houston Astros and RHP Cristian Javier.
Javier got off to a strong start last week against the New York Yankees. He didn’t allow an earned run and gave up just five baserunners (0.833 WHIP), but Houston’s bullpen immediately sold the bag. I don’t expect a similarly strong performance from Javier today.
Last season, Javier recorded a 4.42 xERA (39th percentile) while allowing opposing batters to record a .230 xBA (68th percentile). Those aren’t bad numbers, but he also coughed up 31.8 xHR (sixth-most), which is a recipe for disaster in today’s MLB.
Javier proved especially untrustworthy versus LHH, allowing them to slash .273/.345/.470 with 37 extra-base hits and 12 home runs. He coughed up 2.9 hits per start to LHHs. The Blue Jays don’t have many impressive LHHs on their active roster, but Biggio is one of their better options.
Let’s back Biggio to tally at least a base in today’s game. He is trading at odds of +100 on BetMGM to go over the 0.5, which is a fantastic price — in four at-bats against Javier, Biggio has one hit, which managed to clear the fences. He slashed .223/.337/.372 versus RHPs last season, which could be better, but the nine home runs also make him an appealing target to go yard at odds of +850 on Caesars. The same bet is trading for +560 at FanDuel.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Cavan Biggio Over 0.5 Total Bases +100 at BetMGM & Home Run +850 at Caesars
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Carlos Rodon
I love the handful of LHHs the Blue Jays will use today, but I’m turning to our MLB betting model to help me flesh out the rest of my MLB player prop card. This pick for LHP Carlos Rodon looks like a great bet as he prepares to face a feisty Arizona Diamondbacks squad. Rodon’s 5.34 xERA (14th percentile) and 22.4% strikeout rate (41st percentile) were both well below average last season, and he now draws an Arizona team that leads the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6).
So how does the model work? That’s simple: it indexes the odds across every sportsbook and produces a breakeven price (called “true odds“) for each bet, which helps us spot off-market lines that have positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus per month — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off when you first sign up.
The MLB betting model recommends fading Rodon on the strikeout markets today not because of his flaws as a pitcher but because of a market disparity: the under 5.5 strikeouts will cost you only -111 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing this at -148. We’re scoring a boatload of edge relative to the market here — the true odds for this bet are only -126.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts -111 at FanDuel
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kevin Kiermaier
Well, here we go again. I already explained my issues with Houston’s RHP Cristian Javier (and why I’m excited to back Toronto’s LHHs in this matchup), so let’s target another one of them. What’s great about this pick is that it’s also trading as a +EV bet in our MLB betting model due to another massive market disparity.
FanDuel is charging only +1000 for a bet that you’ll find trading for +750 or worse at every other public book — and +611 at Pinnacle! You’ll have to head to FanDuel for this one because this wager doesn’t have +EV anywhere else.
Kiermaier isn’t the most powerful batsman — he recorded just a .354 xSLG (11th percentile) last season. He also has started the season quite cold, slashing .067/.125/.067 through 16 plate appearances. He may not be an exciting option from a projections-based standpoint, but the value is too good to pass up.
And for all of Kiermaier’s flaws, he still mashed 8.6 xHR last season, and he has performed well versus Javier. Across four at-bats, Kiermaier is slashing .750/.750/.750 against Houston’s starter. I’m backing him to go yard (+1000 at FanDuel) and to record a single base (-160 at Fanatics) in this spot — he should benefit from regression soon.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kevin Kiermaier +1000 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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