We went 1-1-1 last night, winning a bet for Corbin Burnes, losing a half-unit bet for Randy Arozarena and having a bet void for Christopher Morel. But with appropriate unit sizing you can find on our expert picks page and our Discord, it was a profitable night. I’ve found a two MLB player prop picks for tonight, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, May 25
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Rafael Devers
The Boston Red Sox will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park this afternoon, and it’s a smash spot for red-hot Rafael Devers. He’ll get to take on RHP Colin Rea, whose 4.07 ERA masks a brutal 5.59 xERA. Rea’s xBA allowed (.305) and xSLG allowed (.491) are the worst of the slate’s afternoon games.
Rea hasn’t squared off with Devers before, but his struggles against lefty batsmen are enticing. He has allowed them to slash .282/.347/.491 this season with 10 extra-base hits and six home runs. Meanwhile, Devers is slashing .298/.392/.654 against righties with 17 extra-base hits and 10 home runs.
Devers has posted impressive numbers in both the box score and in expected metrics. His .259 xBA (59th percentile) is solid, but his .519 xSLG (90th) really takes the cake. Devers is also in the 90th percentile for barrel rate (14.4%) and hard-hit rate (50.5%), which have helped him mash 10 actual and 9.6 expected home runs.
The MLB weather report calls for 75-degree temperatures and 40% humidity this afternoon. Wind gusts won’t really help Devers, as 7 mph winds are expected to be blowing across and to the left, but the warm weather and reasonably high humidity should help Devers. Back him to tally multiple bases (-120 at Fanatics) and go yard (+450 at Fanatics).
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases -120 & Home Run +450 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Rafael Devers total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
It’s not every day that an over pops out so substantially in our MLB betting model, but that’s what we’ve got with this Kyle Tucker bet tonight. The Astros star will take on LHP J.P. Sears at home this evening, and while Sears has held lefty bats to a slash line of .176/.236/.333 this season, Tucker is still slashing .250/.378/.544 against LHPs.
But our MLB betting model doesn’t care about Tucker’s splits — it cares about the edge we’re getting on the market. We can buy this bet with a ton of positive expected value (+EV) at bet365 because they’ve hung an off-market number:
You’ll find Tucker at odds between +135 and +100 to go over 1.5 total bases at every other public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over 0.5 priced at -191. The only place you’ll find the +145 is at bet365, so if it’s legal in your state, don’t miss out on this absolutely fantastic deal.
This line renders as a +EV bet on bet365 due to of this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyle Tucker total bases live odds page!
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