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Categories MLB

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, July 23

Updated July 24, 2024 | 8:17 am CDT by Isaiah Sirois
The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Tuesday, July 23, including a bet for Logan Gilbert...

Yesterday’s article went 1-1, cashing a ticket for Tyler O’Neill’s total bases but losing an under for Hunter Greene by the hook. I’m looking to go on a heater today, especially since it’s Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, and you can find the full card on Discord or our expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, July 23. If you’re looking for more notes, check out my slate breakdown on X.

Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB betting model or our guide to MLB player prop betting!

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, July 23

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MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill

We’re going to run it back with Tyler O’Neill today. He didn’t deliver a home run yesterday, but he has another great chance to do so tonight in Coors Field. He’ll line up against LHP Ty Blach, who sports a 6.24 xERA (1st percentile), .314 xBA (1st percentile) and 4.9% walk rate (91st), all of which bode well for our purposes. Blach has coughed up 1.4 xHR/9 this year, including 1.5 HR/9 at Coors.

The splits are a key part of the story here. Blach, a LHP, is allowing RHBs to slash .372/.416/.578 with seven home runs. O’Neill a RHB, is slashing .318/.439/.636 versus LHPs with seven home runs. Put the two in Coors Field and we should get a dinger out of O’Neill.

Once Blach exits, O’Neill gets a Rockies bullpen that sports an MLB-high 5.65 ERA to go with the most hits allowed (412) and the 10th-most home runs (45). With last night’s game going to extras, the unit could even be more stretched than usual.

O’Neill also deserves credit as a batter. His .222 xBA (14th percentile) isn’t good, but his .486 xSLG (86th), 15% barrel rate (93rd) and 48.5% hard-hit rate (88th) are. He has also mashed 17.4 xHR on the year with 17 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Coors.

The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Friday, July 19, including a bet for Pete Alonso...
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MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill +330 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler O’Neill home run live odds page!


MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Logan Gilbert

The Seattle Mariners are slumping. They’ve got a chance to bounce back against the Los Angeles Angels this series, but after the first game, it’s not looking good. It’s RHP Logan Gilbert on the mound, and while his 2.79 ERA is dominant, his 3.11 xERA suggests there is some room for regression.

Gilbert has been effective at punching out batters. His 24.8% strikeout rate (68th percentile) is solid, and he punched out nine batters against the Angels right before the All-Star Break. But we’re fading him on the strikeout market today with his total sitting at 6.5.

From a projections-based standpoint, Gilbert is averaging only 6.2 per outing, and the Angels are getting better at avoiding Ks. Los Angeles ranks 16th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (23%) and 14th since June 1st (22.2%) and 10th since July 1st (21.3%).

That said, much of our edge on this MLB player prop bet stems from a market-based approach. Gilbert clocks in at -126 at FanDuel to stay under 6.5 strikeouts tonight. Most books have him between -130 and -155, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing him at -166. Those factors all point to considerable positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:

To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then generates a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can figure out how much expected value we’re getting on that bet.

With this bet, Gilbert’s true odds of staying under 6.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -131. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:

Thus far, our model has identified 1,918 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher with at least two hours remaining before game start. Of those tickets, 1,080 were winners, yielding those who tailed a nice 10.3% ROI — if you played daily, just imagine the compounding returns!

MLB Player Prop Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts -126 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Logan Gilbert total strikeouts live odds page!

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OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for the best +EV MLB bets today.

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Isaiah Sirois

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Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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