It’s a great day for dingers — not only is it FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, but we’ve also got 12.5-plus mph winds blowing out at four stadiums — and 20-plus mph winds at two. So which stadiums (and batters) are we getting excited about? Let’s dive into my MLB player prop picks today, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model as we look to take advantage of FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get half off your first week or month… just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 21
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson is one of my two favorite home bets today. The budding star is slashing .271/.351/.610 on the season with a .280 xBA (83rd percentile) and a .562 xSLG (95th percentile). His 16 actual and 14.6 expected home runs both lead the MLB.
Tonight, Henderson and the Baltimore Orioles will take on RHP Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals. Lynn is known as a pumpkin due to his struggles with power — he coughed up the most actual and expected home runs in the MLB last year.
While Lynn has done a better job of limiting the long ball this year, he still isn’t great. Sure, he has only coughed up six actual and 6.2 expected home runs, but neither his .252 xBA allowed nor his .443 xSLG allowed are very encouraging.
The MLB weather report calls for 20 mph winds blowing out right-center field tonight, which should benefit Henderson. The 92-degree temperatures and 42% humidity should also help, too — with Lynn on the mound for St. Louis and such good weather on tap, multiple Orioles could go yard early, making this game a great target on FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases -145 & Home Run +280 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Gunnar Henderson total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette and the Toronto Blue Jays get to face the Chicago White Sox tonight. It’s been a tough season for both Bichette and his team, as the veteran shortstop is slashing a bad .230/.289/.333 while his Blue Jays are well below .500. I don’t expect him to turn things around tonight.
Our MLB betting model suggests fading Bichette on the total bases market. While Bichette sports a slightly better xBA (.250) and xSLG (.375), he’s still at or below the league average in both metrics, and the books are posting too friendly of a number for him. We’re getting enough positive expected value (+EV) at DraftKings and bet365 to warrant a wager:
Bichette is -120 to stay under 1.5 total bases at DraftKings and bet365 but nowhere else. Most public books have his line priced between -125 and -140, with two public books charging -157. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at -127.
This line renders as a +EV bet at those books due to this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
If you can find a bet trading for odds longer than its true odds, you know it’s a +EV bet. Our tools can help you estimate how much to wager (see bet size) based on the Kelly Criterion and your bankroll.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Total Bases -120 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Bo Bichette total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
The Houston Astros get to host the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning in a favorable matchup for them tonight. It hasn’t been smooth sailing in Houston this year, but that’s no fault of Kyle Tucker, who is slashing .288/.421/.618 thus far. Tucker’s .299 xBA (92nd percentile) and .588 xSLG (96th percentile) are both elite.
Tucker will also benefit from facing a RHP. He is slashing .296/.433/.630 against opposite-handed pitchers this season with 16 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. Meanwhile, Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, allowing them to slash .294/.350/.505 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs.
This one is in Minute Maid Park, and we should see 14 mph winds blowing out through center field tonight in Houston. The 85-degree weather and 72% humidity also stand to help carry the ball out of the park. Tucker is slashing .315/.466/.696 at his home stadium with 17 extra base hits and eight home runs. While he owns only 10.9 expected home runs, he has 15 expected home runs in Houston.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker +340 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyle Tucker home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
