With only three days left in the MLB regular season, the goal is to hit one more parlay before the postseason. Using the Prop Party parlay is the best option, as it features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This article will be using the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 10/3
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks O/U 7.0 | RISK FREE BET
After back-to-back one run home losses against the Marlins, the Brewers find themselves two games back of the last National League Wild Card spot with only three games left to play. They need a sweep of the Diamondbacks and some help from the Phillies losing. The Diamondbacks are coming off of an extra-inning loss to the Giants. Each of the Diamondbacks last seven road games have gone over the total runs line.
Rookie Tommy Henry will make his ninth start this season for the Diamondbacks, and he has struggled big time. Henry has a 5.98 ERA with a low 16.9% strikeout rate. Over his last three starts, Henry has allowed 17 earned runs and six home runs through only 13 innings. Expect the Brewers to take some aggression out on Henry tonight. They may go over this prop line by themselves. It is tough to expect many runs from the Diamondbacks with Brandon Woodruff on the mound, who leads the Brewers with 13 wins and has allowed only five earned runs in his last five starts. The Brewers will score plenty of runs for this over tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total OVER 7.0 Runs (-120)
Guardians vs. Royals O/U 6.5 | RISK FREE BET
With the Guardians already locking up the No. 3 seed in the American League, this six-game series against the Royals holds less weight. This will be the fourth matchup of the series, and the first three games have all gone over the total runs line. During those games, the average total has been 9.7 runs per game.
The Royals will start veteran Zack Greinke, who hasn’t said anything about retiring just yet, but he is expected to be a 39-year-old free agent after this season. Greinke doesn’t have much left in the tank, as he has a 12.9% strikeout rate while allowing a career-high 40.2% hard-hit rate in his 25 starts this season.
The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, so expect many balls to be in play tonight. They will counter with right-hander Triston McKenzie, who ranks second on the Guardians in innings this season. McKenzie has been decent, but don’t expect him to pitch too long, with the playoffs starting later in the week. As long as the Guardians are projected to roll out their best lineup, take the over in a matchup against Greinke.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total OVER 6.5 Runs (-120)
Hunter Greene O/U 8.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
Being a starter for the Reds this season has been a difficult adventure. They are one loss away from being 30 games under .500 but are favored at home tonight against the Cubs. Rookie Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds and has a 4-13 record and a 4.66 ERA. Greene leads the Reds in strikeouts and innings while posting a 30.6% strikeout rate this year.
Despite the extremely high strikeout rate, this prop seems a little far-fetched. Greene has only accumulated nine or more strikeouts in 4 of his 23 starts. This will be the third time that Greene has faced the Cubs, and he has struggled in this matchup thus far. He has an 8.00 ERA while averaging only 5.5 strikeouts per game in nine total innings. The Cubs may rank 10th in strikeout rate this season, but Greene has obviously had a tough time in this spot. Expect a little bit of a bounce-back game from Greene, but getting to nine strikeouts is no easy task. Stokastic projects Greene for 7.2 strikeouts tonight, which is way under this 8.5 prop line. This is the best player prop on the board tonight, so take it with conviction.
Best MLB Pick Today: Hunter Greene UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Dodgers vs. Rockies O/U 8.5 | RISK FREE BET
Another over runs prop features the Dodgers hosting the Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Similar to the Guardians and Royals, these two teams are playing a six-game series to end the season. Two of those three games have gone over the run total, and the average has been 8.7 runs per game during that time. This 8.5 run total is extremely high, but it’s hard to deny taking a Dodgers under. They lead the league in runs with 838, which is 40 more than the next closest team. The Dodgers also rank first in wOBA and wRC+ and second in ISO this season.
A majority of the runs scored will come from the Dodgers tonight, as they have a slate-high 5.4 implied run total. Rockies starter Jose Urena has a 5.24 ERA and under a 15% strikeout rate for the third straight year. It is a tough spot for Urena as he attempts to slow down this juggernaut offense. The Dodgers will start Tony Gonsolin, who was out for a bit with a forearm injury. He has a ridiculous 16-1 record and a 0.86 WHIP. However, coming off the injured list, it’s hard to know how effective and how long Gonsolin will pitch, but the Rockies can provide a couple runs.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total OVER 8.5 Runs (-105)
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Moneyline | RISK FREE BET
The Orioles moneyline at +120 at home against the Blue Jays puts this Party Prop parlay over the edge. The Orioles have already been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Blue Jays have the top Wild Card spot in the American League wrapped up. This series is all tied up at eight wins apiece, and the Orioles have only a slightly worse record than the Blue Jays. The Orioles are also 10 games over .500 playing at home in Camden Yards.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios may have an 11-7 record, but he has a 5.37 ERA, which is the highest since his rookie season. In his last two starts, Berrios has allowed 11 earned runs in only 7.1 innings. The Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who has a career-best 3.17 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. In his three starts against the Blue Jays this season, Kremer has only allowed two earned runs in each start. The Orioles moneyline provides a ton of value in this parlay that has an xWin rate of 4%. That is not crazy high, but the xROI is sitting at 12%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Orioles Moneyline (+120)
