For some big news, the parlay builder has new props, so this article won’t feature only strikeout props anymore! Variety is always fun to have, so let’s dive into this parlay that features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll offer the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/12
Tigers vs. Astros | RISK FREE BET
The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers have been polar opposites all season. While the Tigers have already been eliminated from playoff contention, the Astros have the best record in the American League and seem to be coasting to the No. 1 overall seed. After sweeping the Tigers in early May, the Astros will look for another sweep as they open this three-game series in Detroit.
Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Astros, and he has a career-high 14 wins and a very impressive 1.13 WHIP. He leads the Astros in innings and is 5-1 in his last six games while averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game during that time. Eduardo Rodriguez will start for the Tigers, and he has struggled in his first season with the team. In only 12 starts, Rodriguez is 3-4 with a 19.4% strikeout rate and a career-worst 36% hard-hit rate. Despite this game being on the road, the Astros should roll the Tigers, who have the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.9 runs. Back the Astros to keep the momentum going.
Best MLB Pick Today: Houston Astros Moneyline (-208)
Guardians vs. Angels | RISK FREE BET
After sweeping the Minnesota Twins, the Cleveland Guardians now have a 2.5-game lead in the AL Central as they get set for a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels. This is a pitching battle between two very young left-handers. Rookie Konnor Pilkington will start for the Guardians for the 10th time this season, while Reid Detmers in his first full season will take the mound for the Angels.
Getting Mike Trout back has certainly helped the Angels, but they still lead the league in strikeout rate, while the Guardians rank last. This is also a situation where one team has a playoff berth to clinch, while the other is waiting to go on vacation. With less than a month remaining in the season, every little thing matters. The Guardians are favored to win this game tonight, but the Prop Party parlay suggests taking them +1.5 at -200. Covering at home should be easy for the Guardians as they try to extend their lead in the AL Central and get one step closer to the postseason.
Best MLB Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-200)
Mike Minor O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The lone player prop in this parlay features veteran left-hander Mike Minor. Through 17 starts this season, Minor has a 4-10 record, a career-high 1.56 WHIP and a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate. However, Minor has been dialed in recently, with a 3-0 record in his last four games.
This may seem like a large strikeout prop line, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate and the third-fewest runs in the league. In two starts against the Pirates this season, Minor is averaging exactly 4.5 strikeouts per game. When looking at all of the MLB bets on OddsShopper, this is the first player prop bet that pops up, given that Minor has an xWin rate of 59% to hit this over. The only team worse than the Reds in the NL Central division is the Pirates, so it makes sense that Minor and the Reds are -137 favorites tonight. This over is the best player prop on the slate.
Best MLB Pick Today: Mike Minor OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Mets vs. Cubs | RISK FREE BET
The Cubs are another very poor NL Central team, and they are +250 underdogs as they open up a series on the road against the New York Mets, who have the National League’s second-best record. That said, if Chicago can keep this game within two runs, this bet will hit. They send rookie Javier Assad to the mound, who has climbed through the minor leagues this season and will start his fourth game with the Cubs. His strikeout rate hasn’t translated as well, but Assad has a very respectable 2.93 ERA.
The Mets will start Chris Bassitt, who is in his first year with the team and has led them in innings and has a 3.24 ERA. This game could go under the total of 8.0, as it has already moved down from 8.5. There is a lot of pressure on the Mets to fend off the Atlanta Braves in the NL East division; instead of the under, side with the Cubs to keep this game competitive.
Best MLB Pick Today: Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-125)
Blue Jays vs. Rays | RISK FREE BET
Each of the last four games between the Blue Jays and Rays when playing at Rogers Centre has gone over the runs line, and this one is currently 8.5 runs. Both teams score quickly against each other. In their last five meetings, the first inning over 0.5 runs has hit in each game, so that is another bet to look into.
After three starts in the minor leagues, the Rays have called up Cooper Criswell to start for them tonight. Even if his first stint with the team is brief, starting against the Blue Jays — who rank fourth in wOBA — is a tough spot. The Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios, who has allowed a career-worst 44.1% hard-hit rate and has an awful 5.23 ERA and 1.72 HR/9. Expect runs to be scored in bunches as both teams jockey for playoff positioning in the American League.
Best MLB Pick Today: Game Total OVER 8.5 Runs (-110)
