It’s nearly Opening Day, and while the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres prepare to kick off the season in Seoul, we’re diving into the futures odds this week, including end-of-year awards. Here we will cover National League Cy Young Award odds, a board that is packed with a lot of potential. Let’s look at the NL Cy Young Award odds and see if there are any value spots, including the favorite, Spencer Strider. Looking for more analysis and picks? Check out our MLB betting tools or our MLB betting promos!
2024 National League Cy Young Odds: Spencer Strider Favored
2024 National League Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | NL Cy Young Odds |
|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | +450 |
| Zack Wheeler | +800 |
| Logan Webb | +950 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +1000 |
| Zac Gallen | +1200 |
| Max Fried | +1300 |
| Tyler Glasnow | +1400 |
| Justin Steele | +2000 |
| Aaron Nola | +2200 |
| Dylan Cease | +2500 |
| Jesus Luzardo | +3000 |
| Freddy Peralta | +3000 |
| Bobby Miller | +3500 |
| Mitch Keller | +3500 |
| Chris Sale | +3500 |
| Eury Perez | +3500 |
| Yu Darvish | +4000 |
| Sonny Gray | +4000 |
| Merrill Kelly | +4000 |
| Kodai Senga | +4000 |
| Hunter Greene | +4000 |
| Shota Imanaga | +4000 |
| Luis Severino | +5000 |
| Joe Musgrove | +5000 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +5000 |
Spencer Strider Trading as the Favorite
With reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, Blake Snell, still unsigned as of March 20, each of the past nine NL Cy Young Award winners is either out for the season with an injury or no longer in the National League — a streak that dates back to Clayton Kershaw in 2014. Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider comes in as the heavy favorite with odds ranging from +400 to +500. He is coming off a fourth-place finish in the 2023 Cy Young Award voting despite leading the MLB with 20 pitching victories and 281 strikeouts in just 186.2 innings pitched.
Though Strider is the chalk, he certainly has all the pieces to earn the prestigious award if he can stay healthy. If it wasn’t for a rough month of September in which Strider allowed 17 earned runs in five starts, ballooning his ERA from 3.56 to 3.86, he might have made it a much tighter race for the award last season. All of his tools have remained the same from last season — he has a four-seam fastball that pushes 100 mph, a devastating slider with a near-30% swinging strike rate and a changeup with a near 15 mph deviation from his fastball — giving him one of the best, if not the best, arsenals in the league.
Philadelphia Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler and 2023 NL Cy Young Award runner-up Logan Webb come in at +900 and +1100, respectively, while newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto checks in between +1000 and +1400, depending on the sportsbook. Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting each of the past two years and sits between +1200 and +1500 as well.
One of the best mid-range values on the NL Cy Young odds board is newly-acquired Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow. Hovering between odds of +1400 at DraftKings and +2000 elsewhere, the biggest argument against Glasnow so far has been his lack of a full campaign. In seven MLB seasons, Glasnow has only topped out at 120 innings pitched, reaching the career-high total last season as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.
In 21 starts, Glasnow posted a 3.53 ERA with a 1.083 WHIP and 162 strikeouts. Of course, data extrapolation is flawed logic (especially with pitchers), but if he were to maintain similar numbers over 160 or even 180 innings pitched, Glasnow could easily reach 200-plus strikeouts and 16-20 pitching wins with the star-studded Dodgers lineup backing him.
If you’re looking for a dark horse, consider placing a wager on St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray. Though he finished with an unsightly 8-8 record as a member of the Minnesota Twins, Gray finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting in 2023 behind a 2.79 ERA over 186.0 innings pitched. He recorded 183 strikeouts and posted a 1.147 WHIP, and profiles very similarly to last year’s NL Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. However, with odds ranging from +2000 to +7000, Gray is worth a speculative sprinkle as he enters his age-34 season — make sure to take advantage at that price.
