After last night’s thrilling Game 1 comeback by the Philadelphia Phillies, they now look to jump to a 2-0 series lead in Houston on Saturday before traveling back to Philly. As we continue our World Series coverage, this post will focus on our Phillies-Astros Game 2 prediction and pick.
Phillies-Astros Game 2 Prediction
Zack Wheeler to Continue Dominant Pitching
Taking the mound for the Phillies in Game 2 is right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Through 26 starts in the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also incredible as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA, and .343 xSLG. Therefore, It is not surprising that the right-handers’ success continued into the postseason.
Through his four playoff starts, Wheeler boasts a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP. Although Philadelphia’s bullpen is sometimes a concern, Wheeler has gone at least six innings in all four of his playoff starts and should be able to limit the amount of time they need to be out there in this game.
However, Wheeler may not get the best run support as the Phillies are slated to go against left-hander Framber Valdez. Through 42 career plate appearances against Valdez, this current Philadelphia roster possesses a mere .135 BA, .135 SLG, and .158 wOBA.
The metrics across those 42 plate appearances suggest that positive regression should not be too much of a concern as they have produced an underwhelming .171 xBA, .217 xSLG, and .211 xwOBA.
Framber Valdez is No Walk Through the Park Either
As mentioned above, left-hander Framber Valdez is taking the mound for Houston. Like Wheeler, Valdez has been incredible all year.
Through 30 starts in the regular season, Valdez went 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also outstanding as he boasts a .284 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and .330 xSLG.
Therefore, It is not surprising that the left-handers’ success continued into the postseason. Across his two playoff starts, Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
Will this success continue against Philadelphia? In his one career start against the Phillies, which was just a few weeks ago, the left-hander was brilliant as he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out 10.
Following Valdez is one of the best bullpens in baseball. During the regular season, Houston’s relief pitching ranked first in the league in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in BA, second in SLG, second in wOBA, and first in FIP.
Phillies-Astros Game 2 Prediction
Although Game 1 saw a high-scoring affair, runs should be harder to come by on Saturday night given out each of these two starting pitchers have been. In fact, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in eight of Wheeler’s last 11 starts dating back to the regular season.
A similar trend rings true for Valdez as there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in seven of his last 11 starts. The last time Valdez pitched against Philadelphia, runs were limited as the Astros won a close 3-2 ball game.
Going against Wheeler, this one should be another close, low-scoring affair.
Phillies-Astros Game 2 Prediction: Under 7 (-110, FanDuel)
