FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday featured plenty of home runs last week. The problem was none of them came from this space. But we aren’t discouraged. We’re back to make today’s best MLB home run bets thanks to FanDuel Sportsbook’s promotion.
Haven’t heard of Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
New to FanDuel? Get $150 in bonus bets if you are a first-time depositor and place a $5 wager.
How you attack Dinger Tuesday is up to you. My preference, which may differ from others, is to generally take some chances. I’m finding high totals where home runs will be expected in order to cash in on the bonus bets while hoping to connect on a few longer odds. This probably isn’t the space to find many +250 picks.
Today’s Best MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday
Odds via FanDuel
Mark Canha +600 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
In the biggest sample size we have of Padres starting pitcher Ryan Weathers, or the 2021 season, he often gave up home runs. In 94.2 innings that year, Weathers’ HR% was 5%, much higher than the league average of 3.1%. We’ll take the $5 if Pete Alonso goes yard, but Mark Canha is a solid option when facing a left-hander.
Eddie Rosario +560 | Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Let’s go back to circling Cincinnati’s Luis Cessa this week, but we’re taking more of a longshot with Eddie Rosario tonight. Cessa is below average at keeping the ball in the yard, and while he generally struggles more against right-handed hitters, Rosario mashes righties. There’s some risk that he’ll be lifted for a pinch hitter against a lefty late or for defense, but there’s plenty of value at +560. We’ll take that chance.
Trey Mancini +470 | Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
Chris Flexen is a fly-ball pitcher. The wind at Wrigley is blowing out. That sounds like a game we want to target for today’s best MLB home run bets.
The total is 10.5, which suggests scoring and home runs should be plentiful. No lineup is out yet, but let’s take a chance on Trey Mancini to find that wind wave into the bleachers. He has brief experience against Flexen (six at-bats) but isn’t at risk of being platooned against a reliever later. Let’s back Mancini to take advantage of the weather tonight to go deep for the first time as a Cub.
Nathaniel Lowe +460 | Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Meet Jordan Lyles, who will be a mainstay in this space. If he keeps pitches on Tuesdays, FanDuel might move this promotion to Wednesday. Few pitchers give up home runs as often as Lyles, and Lowe is hitting third tonight for the Rangers. That should give him a chance sandwiched between Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia to help the Rangers put up crooked numbers.
Ryan McMahon +420 | Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I wanted this to be Jurickson Profar, who is hitting lead-off against Miles Mikolas at +600, but after seeing McMahon’s odds are actually better at FanDuel than at other shops, I had to change my mind. McMahon has relative success (four hits in 12 at-bats…yes, I know it’s only 12 at-bats) against Mikolas. He’s hitting third, meaning he should see maximal plate appearances, and there’s a total of 12.5 to give us more chances at cashing in on others.
