We went a tough 1-2 last night, losing unders for Luka Doncic and Aaron Gordon by narrow margins but cashing one for Andrew Nembhard. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Fred VanVleet, LeBron James and Luguentz Dort. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +26.7u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Fred VanVleet & More
Luguentz Dort Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Miami Heat this evening. The Heat are coming off a tough home loss to the Dallas Mavericks in which Luka Doncic erupted for another 35-point triple-double. Miami’s defensive anchors, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, both played 38-plus minutes. Neither Butler nor Adebayo have been getting days off for back-to-backs with the Heat treading water above the cut line for the play-in tournament, so I expect to see them both out there tonight.
Miami’s defensive attention should be focused on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, opening up opportunities for role players like Luguentz Dort to contribute. Dort has been lethal from the corner this season, especially the right corner, and is averaging 0.7 makes on 1.6 attempts (42.1%) per game. With the Heat surrendering the fourth-most corner 3’s per game this year (4.2), Dort should get a few chances to hit wide-open shots from beyond the arc.
We’re backing Dort to go over 9.5 points. That number is not only below his season average (10.7), but it’s also below his average since the All-Star Break (11.1), at home (11.6) and versus the Heat since the 2022-23 season (14.3). I’m backing Dort to go for double-digit points at odds of -130 on FanDuel and am laddering him to go for 15+ (+400 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 9.5 Points -130 at FanDuel
LeBron James Player Prop
It feels weird to fade a superstar player like LeBron James, but that’s exactly what we’re doing for his matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Bucks haven’t played great defense this season, but they rank 15th in assists allowed per game (26.5) and 13th since the All-Star Break (26). Over the last seven games, they have allowed the second-fewest assists per game to power forwards (2.7), where LeBron has spent most of his time this year.
I like this under, as does OddsShopper Premium. From the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this LeBron James under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 8.5 points will cost you -110 (52.4%) at PointsBet and Fanatics, which is a better number than the true odds of -125 (55.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 8.5 for -138 (58%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: LeBron James Under 8.5 Assists -110 at Fanatics
Fred VanVleet Player Prop
The Houston Rockets will visit the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Although this is a smash spot for Houston, I can’t help but fade Fred VanVleet here. The Rockets have struggled to do much on the road, and VanVleet’s last six road games were no exception — he averaged 14 points per game through that stretch, crossing the 17-point threshold we need him to stay under tonight just twice.
The Trail Blazers aren’t a good team, but their biggest weakness has been the paint, which doesn’t benefit most point guards and especially doesn’t help VanVleet. Portland has allowed the fifth-most points in the paint per game this year (54.6) and the third-most made field goals per game in the restricted area (20.3), which correspond to the sixth-most points allowed per game to centers (24.4).
Meanwhile, Portland ranks first in above-the-break 3’s allowed per game both this year (8.1) and since the All-Star Break (8). VanVleet takes only 1.8 field goals per game in the restricted area, of which he converts 0.8, but takes 7.1 per game from above the break, good for over half of his shot attempts. VanVleet needed 46 minutes just to score 18 points versus Portland back in January.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Under 16.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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