Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Monday, March 18

Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.

Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.

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Dejounte Murray Player Prop

The Atlanta Hawks just took down the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Dejounte Murray led the team with 21 points as Trae Young remains sidelined. They now have to play the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and, with the spread up to 8.5 in L.A.’s favor, the Hawks have their work cut out for them.

No Atlanta player is better positioned to feast against this Los Angeles defense than Murray. The veteran point guard can light opposing teams up from deep or cook them in the paint, as his shot chart suggests. Since the All-Star Break, Murray leads the Hawks in points scored in the paint per game (10.2) and in above-the-break 3’s made (2.5) and attempted (7.5).

Importantly, the Lakers struggle where Murray is at his best. L.A. has coughed up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (53.7) and the third-highest conversion rate in the restricted area (72.8%), which should help Murray be more efficient at the rim. The Lakers have also allowed the third-most makes from above the break (11.3) since the pause as well.

Stephen Curry Player Prop

Editor’s note (3/18/2024 at 4 p.m. ET): OG Anunoby has been ruled out. The below bet is still beating the market, per our +EV betting tools, so it remains on the card.

The Golden State Warriors will face the stingy New York Knicks this evening. Star defender OG Anunoby is questionable for New York, but he hasn’t missed a game since his return to the floor on March 12, and it’s probably safe to assume he’ll suit up.

When Anunoby is on the floor, the Knicks are borderline unstoppable. He returned three games ago, and since then, New York ranks first in defensive rating (93.9) by a 7.5-point margin. They also rank 28th in pace, minimizing the chances their opponents have had to put the ball in the hoop.

I’m probably going to fade multiple Warriors today, but I started by putting a unit on Stephen Curry to stay under 26.5 points. That’s a low total for Curry — he is averaging 27 points per game this year — but that number slips to 22 since the All-Star Break.

You’ll find Curry trading at -110 to stay under the 26.5 at most public books, including DraftKings. The same NBA player prop bet is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, so we’re beating the market for enough positive expected value (+EV).