Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Thursday, March 7

Aaron Gordon Player Prop

Few NBA players have as condensed a shot chart as Aaron Gordon. The veteran power forward almost exclusively shoots in the restricted area, averaging 6.3 field goal attempts per game from that zone, good for 63% of his total attempts — and 81.8% of his total made field goals. Gordon’s shot profile hasn’t evolved much in recent games, either — 54.5% of his attempts and 68.9% of his makes were in the restricted area over the last 15.

Gordon’s reliance on interior scoring makes his matchup with the Boston Celtics quite difficult. The Celtics are allowing the third-fewest made field goals per game in the restricted area this year (15.3) on the third-lowest conversion rate (63%). Those numbers improve to 14.2 and 61.7% over the last 15. This corresponds to the fewest points per game allowed to power forwards on the year (19.7) and over the last 15 (18.4).

Our NBA betting tools want action on this Andrew Nembhard under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 10.5 points will cost you -115 (53.5%) at PointsBet and Fanatics, which is a better number than the true odds of -129 (56.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 10.5 for -150 (60%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Luka Doncic Player Prop

Let’s wrap up today’s NBA player prop picks with my play for Luka Doncic. If you’ve been following my stuff consistently this year, you know that we often fade high-scoring players versus the Miami Heat, and Luka Doncic isn’t an exception to that rule tonight. His points prop is trading at a lofty 33.5 across the market right now, which is more than a bit too high in this spot.

Doncic is averaging 34.6 points per game on the year, but that number has spiked to 37.6 since the All-Star Break, creating a great sell-high spot for us. Miami’s defense doesn’t give up high-percentage looks, especially not to star players, so this matchup won’t be easy for him.

The Heat rank second in shots allowed per game in the restricted area (14.7) and ninth in shots allowed from above the break (9), zones where Doncic takes 58.8% of his shots and gets 58% of his makes. The last time that Miami’s two defensive anchors, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, played 30-plus minutes versus Doncic, he tallied just 21 points on splits of 26/29/75.